Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC takes a hawkish view as ruble falls The Russian central bank kept its benchmark one-week repo rate on hold at 11.00% earlier today, but the markedly more hawkish tone of the accompanying statement makes it clear that rate cuts – which... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap A tough start to the year for frontier financial markets Frontier assets have had a difficult start to the year as fears over global growth caused fresh turmoil in financial markets. Oil producers have been particularly hard hit on the back of the collapse... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.) January’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe were surprisingly strong and, on past form, point to growth of over 4% y/y at the start of 2016. These figures highlight that at... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil drags ruble down, politics weighs on zloty The fresh leg down in oil prices has caused the ruble to tumble, making it one of the worst-performing EM currencies so far this year. Elsewhere, mounting concerns about populist policymaking in... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Oil price fall dents hopes for stabilisation in Russia The latest fall in oil prices and in the ruble since the start of the year has dealt a blow to hopes that Russia’s economy would stabilise in the near future. Fiscal policy is likely to be tightened... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (2015) The preliminary estimate of Polish annual 2015 GDP, which showed an expansion of 3.6% over the year as a whole, suggests that growth picked up in Q4. This appears to be due to strengthening investment... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2015) & Activity Data (Dec.) Preliminary Russian GDP data, which showed that the economy contracted by 3.7% over 2015 as a whole, are consistent with a drop in GDP of around 3.5% y/y in Q4. Worryingly, December’s activity figures... 25th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM debt: recapping the risks The dangers posed by a rapid build-up in EM debt have come back into the spotlight in recent weeks. In this Focus we revisit the lessons from history. Three points stand out – with potentially ominous... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Dec.) The stronger-than-expected Polish activity data for December suggest that overall GDP may have expanded by as much as 4% y/y in Q4 of last year. 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the latest fall in the ruble mean for Russia? The latest drop in the ruble to below 80/$ creates several headaches for policymakers and means that the chances of a cut in interest rates over the next month or so, which were already slim, have now... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Talk of an EM currency war looks overdone A retreat to widespread competitive currency devaluations in emerging markets would certainly be a cause for concern but, despite recent claims to the contrary, there is so far little evidence to... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: central bank holds rates, damages credibility The Turkish central bank’s decision to keep its key interest rates on hold today, despite pressure on the lira and the deteriorating inflation outlook, adds to the impression that monetary policy... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth stable despite market slump Sentiment towards emerging markets has worsened since the start of the year amid mounting worries about the outlook in a number of key economies. Nevertheless, the latest data provide no evidence of a... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What would a China hard landing mean for EMs? We don’t expect China to suffer a hard landing, but if it were to happen it would result in widespread currency weakness and slower growth in large parts of the emerging world. Emerging Asian... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to make of Russia’s fiscal plans There appears to be a great deal of confusion surrounding Russia’s fiscal plans for this year – including a mooted 10% cut in government spending that the cabinet has reportedly agreed this week. In... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Drop in EM exports still likely to ease this year EM exports continued to perform poorly at the tail-end of last year, but we think that the pace of contraction should at least ease over the course of 2016. 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
