Emerging Europe Economics Update What would Brexit mean for Eastern Europe? With one month to go to the UK’s referendum on whether to remain in or leave the EU, concerns are growing in some quarters that a “Brexit” vote could harm Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). As things... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM central banks pause for breath Emerging market policymakers have been in tightening mode over the past year, but this reversed last month. Our EM interest rate diffusion index shows that more EM central banks cut rates than hiked... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier market governments push for reform Low commodity prices, slower growth and a string of elections have prompted a move towards reform in a handful of frontier market economies in recent months. But while these governments have made... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Apr.) The strength of Polish activity data for April, released today, confirms our suspicion that the weakness seen in Q1 was likely to prove temporary. Indeed, it looks like the economy expanded by around... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q1) The slowdown in Czech GDP in Q1, to 3.1% y/y from 4.0% y/y, confirms that last year’s bumper growth rates were temporary. But the economy is still strong and today’s figures, coming alongside... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q1 2016) The shallower-than-expected 1.2% y/y fall in Russia’s GDP in the first quarter confirms that the acute phase of the crisis is now over. And the annual growth rate could return to the positive... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian reforms to remain difficult, despite Kudrin’s return The appointment of well-respected former Finance Minister, Alexei Kudrin, as the Deputy Head of the President’s Economic Council has revived hopes that Russia could be set for a new wave of... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2016) The slowdown in GDP growth in Central and South Eastern Europe in Q1 supports our view that the very rapid rates of expansion seen at the end of last year weren’t likely to last. At a country level... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM credit bubbles deflating, but risks building in China Credit growth is slowing in most of the economies we have previously identified as being at risk from a rapid build-up of private sector debt. The exception is China, where aggressive stimulus has... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export recovery continues The rate at which EM exports are declining slowed sharply in March. We expect that higher commodity prices and an improvement in China’s economy will see export values return to growth later this year... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update C&SEE GDP growth slower, but still strong, in Q1 The flash Q1 GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe (C&SEE) to be released later this week and next week are likely to point to growth of 3-3.5% y/y in most countries. Those rates would be... 10th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Mar.) The ongoing improvement in Turkey’s current account position in March was encouraging, but once again it was driven mainly by a falling energy import bill. Moreover, as last week’s sell-off in the... 10th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from EMs declined sharply in April to a 10-month low of a little over $10bn. Outflows from China remained relatively low compared to the past year, while... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Mar.) Turkish industrial production data for March indicate that the economy grew at a faster pace in Q1 than in Q4, but that the economy lost momentum towards the end of the quarter. What’s more, the... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC remains cautious, Czech MPC stays dovish The Romanian MPC once again sounded relatively hawkish at this afternoon’s press conference, and we remain comfortable with our view that monetary policy will be tightened later this year to take some... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Polish deflation: less than meets the eye? The persistent depth of deflation in Poland, particularly when compared with the rest of Central Europe, appears to be due largely to measurement issues, rather than significantly weaker domestic... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
