Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q4.) The fall in Czech GDP between Q3 and Q4 will take some of the gloss off Emerging Europe’s best performing economy last year. The underlying picture is still strong, but at the margin these data... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Jan.) The fall in Polish inflation in January, to a weaker-than-expected -0.7% y/y, appears to be due to a decline in core inflation. Accordingly, these figures raise the risk that the new-look MPC will... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2015) The raft of stronger-than-expected flash Q4 GDP growth figures from Central and South Eastern Europe suggest that the region as a whole grew by close to 4% y/y, its best rate since 2008. These serve... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Dec.) Turkey’s current account deficit widened in December from November, but that was largely due to seasonal factors and the underlying trend is still one of an improving external position. The upshot is... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Low oil prices give Turkey temporary reprieve Lower oil prices and a more dovish US Fed have given the Turkish economy a stay of execution and, as a result, we have revised up our GDP growth forecast for this year to 3.0% in 2016 (from 1.5%... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Can EMs exploit weaker currencies? EMs are much better placed now than in the past to weather potential problems caused by sharp drops in their currencies. But by the same token, those EMs that have seen the largest falls in their... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Dec.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish industrial production in December, of 4.5% y/y, provides further evidence that GDP growth over Q4 as a whole was robust. We think the economy may have... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jan.) The sharp fall in Russian inflation in January can be explained by the fact that the effects of the collapse in the ruble at the end of 2014 and start of 2015 fell out of the annual comparison... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC takes more dovish stance, extends koruna cap pledge The Czech MPC was even more dovish than we had expected at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference as it not only extended its commitment to keeping the exchange rate ceiling in place to 2017... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia to spend another year in recession The recent run of weak data, coupled with the latest fall in oil prices, has prompted us to revise our forecasts for Russia. We now expect the economy to contract by 1.3% this year and grow by just 0... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jan.) Stronger-than-expected Turkish inflation in January, of 9.6% y/y, was partly driven by administered price hikes and what is likely to be a temporary unwinding of the impact of the decline in global... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to make of Russia’s privatisation plans The recent talk of a new wave of privatisation in Russia has attracted much attention, but we suspect that there is less to the proposed plans than meets the eye. While these may temporarily improve... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI edges up January’s PMIs suggest that stabilisation in manufacturing across EMs continued at the start of the year. It’s particularly encouraging that conditions are no longer getting worse in Brazil and Russia... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) January’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe provided further evidence that the Central European economies made a robust start to the year. Admittedly, the Polish PMI was weak, but there are... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth dips – but no sign of collapse Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth dipped again in November. However, this was driven overwhelmingly by a deepening downturn in Brazil – and more recent survey data have provided some hope that... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Divergent inflation outlook The divergence in EM inflation looks set to persist throughout 2016. In Emerging Asia, Central Europe and parts of the Middle East, low oil prices will help keep inflation muted. But in some of the... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
