Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM currency vulnerabilities shifting In our Risk Monitor published this time last year, we warned about growing risk of crises in Turkey and Argentina. The likelihood of full-blown currency crises occurring in the emerging world now... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Feb.) The better-than-expected 1.3% m/m rise in Turkish industrial production in February provides further evidence that the economy pulled out of recession in Q1. But the recovery is likely to be slow. 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s reform plans, Central European inflation The Turkish finance minister’s economic reform plan unveiled this week was light on details and provided worrying signs that the government may lean on state banks to drive an economic recovery... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM dollar bond yields likely to rise despite dovish Fed Although the Fed’s dovish shift is likely to continue, we are sticking with our pessimistic view of the outlook for EM sovereign dollar bonds. That is because we expect credit spreads to rise sharply... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Best-performing EM equities unlikely to stay on top We think that the best-performing countries in the MSCI EM Index so far this year will end up nearer the bottom of the class over the rest of 2019. That is because we expect the key factors driving... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Synchronised downturn The emerging world has entered its first synchronised downturn since 2015. Our growth forecasts remain below consensus in nearly all major EMs. With growth slowing and inflation near a decade low, EM... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish lira risks, CEE consumer boom, Russian data debate The Turkish lira has been fairly steady following last Sunday’s local elections, but there are a number of potential flashpoints that could cause it to come under pressure again in the coming weeks... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What would a no-deal Brexit mean for Emerging Europe? In the event of a no-deal Brexit, we think that weaker UK import demand would probably result in Central European GDP growth in 2019-20 being 0.3-0.5%-pts weaker than in a managed Brexit scenario... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing improves at the end of Q1 The rise in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI at the end of last quarter suggests that the slowdown in EM industrial production growth may have bottomed out. 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Scandi retail to tread water; full steam ahead in CEE In Scandinavia and Switzerland, retail will be the clear loser over the next few years, whereas Scandinavian office and industrial markets are set to outperform, led by Stockholm. In emerging Europe... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish local elections, Russian GDP figures Concerns about Turkey’s economy and financial markets are unlikely to fade even once Sunday’s local elections are out of the way. If anything, we think that they will intensify. Meanwhile, expected... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Key frontier market currencies hold up well, for now Frontier market currencies have fared better than their emerging market counterparts during the recent market turmoil. But their balance sheets are generally much weaker, making currencies vulnerable... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Mar.) March’s set of ESIs point to GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe holding up at 4.0% y/y in Q1. But evidence that the weakening external environment is starting to take a bigger toll the region’s... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM GDP growth slowing in Q1 The slowdown in EM GDP growth over the second half of 2018 worsened at the start of this year. EM GDP growth in Q1 is shaping up to be the weakest since Q4 2016. 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM currencies come back into the firing line A spell of relative calm for EM currencies was broken this month, as several including the Argentine peso, Turkish lira, Brazilian real and South African rand fell sharply, despite a more dovish US... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Strong data, Turkish MPC in a bind, Hungary rates The first batch of hard activity data for February out of Emerging Europe – published this week in Russia and Poland – were surprisingly strong, but it seems unlikely that this will be sustained as... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
