Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT’s mixed messages, Polish rate expectations The Turkish central bank’s messaging to investors has become even more confused over the past week and the institution’s damaged credibility means that it will be even more difficult for policymakers... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMI falls back as BRICs falter The drop in the headline EM manufacturing PMI in April was driven by weaker surveys out of all four BRIC economies. The breakdown of Markit’s aggregate EM survey showed that the rebound in EM exports... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) April’s PMI data point to a sharp slowdown in industrial output in Central Europe in the coming months. The weakness in the euro-zone looks set to take a heavier toll on Czech industrial output... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Four points on EM political risk premiums The key determinants of EM political risk premiums are the type of political shock and the strength of an economy’s external balance sheet. With this in mind, Ukraine and Argentina have the greatest... 1st May 2019 · 13 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three key points on the latest EM currency “sell-off” The recent sell-off in EM currencies has grabbed the headlines but in truth, aside from the Argentine peso and Turkish lira, the moves have been relatively limited. This Update highlights three key... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM currency sell-off not a headwind to growth yet The sell-offs in the Argentine peso and Turkish lira have sparked fears of broader turmoil in EM financial markets. But, so far at least, this has yet to materialise. Sovereign dollar bond spreads... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Regional GDP growth reaches a trough in Q1 Aggregate GDP growth in Emerging Europe appears to have slowed from 1.9% y/y in Q4 to around 1.3% y/y in Q1. While we don’t anticipate much of a rebound in the coming quarters, it does at least appear... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) April’s set of ESIs suggest that aggregate GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe slowed from 4.0% y/y in Q1 to around 3.5% y/y at the start of Q2. It appears that the weak external environment is... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth weakest in nearly three years in Q1 Economic growth in the emerging world appears to have slowed further in the first quarter of this year, to its weakest pace since Q2 2016. Early indicators suggest that activity picked up at the end... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s dovish shift misjudged, Czech signals rate hike The Turkish central bank’s dovish shift yesterday spooked investors and, with a number of flashpoints ahead for the lira, we think that it’s too soon for policymakers to be signalling interest rate... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM currency outlook poor regardless of oil prices Despite the 35% surge in oil prices this year, some of the EM currencies traditionally regarded as “petro-currencies” have hardly risen. That is not all that surprising – the influence of oil prices... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How often do EM central banks respond to currency falls? Turkey’s central bank seems to react like clockwork by tightening monetary policy when the lira falls sharply, but other EM central banks respond much less frequently than is commonly believed. Most... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Slowest regional growth since 2015 Regional GDP growth is set to slow to its weakest pace since 2015 this year and our forecasts for most countries are below consensus. Weakness in the euro-zone will weigh on the highly-open economies... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports past the worst, but will remain weak Having stagnated in February, there are tentative signs in the March data that the worst has passed for EM exports. But weakness in the global technology sector, lower commodity prices and soft global... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM corporate earnings likely to disappoint The rally in EM equities has continued over the past month, seemingly driven by the view that recent weakness in the global economy will not last, as policymakers in the US and China in particular... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar.) Our Tracker suggests that overall EM capital outflows eased markedly in Q1. However, we think that positive sentiment towards EMs will start to turn over the coming quarters as worries about weak... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
