Emerging Markets Economics Update EM debt: revisiting the risks Concerns about foreign currency debts in emerging markets have flared up again in recent weeks, but we think that the worst of these fears are probably overdone. FX debt burdens in most EMs have... 3rd December 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) The rise in Turkish inflation in November is likely to mark the start of a steady upward trend over the next couple of years. This won’t prevent the central bank from cutting interest rates further at... 3rd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) November’s batch of manufacturing PMIs for Central Europe showed a slight improvement on October’s figures but nonetheless remain consistent with a further slowdown in industrial output over the... 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q3) Turkey’s economy grew by a weaker-than-expected 0.4% q/q in Q3 but the lagged effects of policy loosening mean that the recovery is likely to gather pace over the next few quarters. The authorities’... 2nd December 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish policymaking worsens, CEE currencies slip Interventionist policymaking in Turkey has come back onto the radar this week. This is likely to lead to a misallocation of resources and adds to the reasons to think that the country’s next crisis... 29th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update 2021 to mark last year of falls in CEE property yields We think that while yield compression across CEE markets has further to go in the next two years, property yields will rise beyond 2021 as tighter monetary policy in the region feeds through. 29th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) The European Commission’s batch of Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for November suggest that, after slowing to a three-year low of 3.6% y/y in Q3, regional GDP growth picked up to 4.0% y/y at the... 28th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE: loose policy sowing seeds of a sharper adjustment The recent strong performance of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will probably continue for a few more years as fiscal and monetary policy remain loose. But this is likely to cause some of the... 28th November 2019 · 18 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Asian electronics and the coming EM export rebound The year-on-year rate of EM export growth should turn positive in the coming months, but this will mainly reflect favourable base effects from the Asian electronics cycle rather than stronger... 19th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Protests persist, but fallout will vary Ongoing protests in Chile, Hong Kong and Lebanon will weigh on their economies and financial markets, but to different degrees. While the tightening of financial conditions and strikes in Chile will... 15th November 2019 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s current account, Hungary’s strong GDP Turkey’s current account has been in surplus for three consecutive months now, but the government’s efforts to speed up the recovery will probably cause the external position to deteriorate again soon... 15th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q3 2019) The Q3 GDP data for Central & Eastern Europe showed that while regional GDP growth slowed to its weakest pace in over three years, growth remained strong in Hungary and Poland. But with euro-zone... 14th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Sep.) The rebound in Turkish industrial production in September suggests that the economy ended Q3 on a firmer footing and more timely evidence points to a further recovery in the coming months. The economy... 14th November 2019 · 2 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack Equity rally unlikely to last, regardless of a trade deal EM equities have continued to rise over the past month, seemingly driven by optimism about an imminent US/China trade deal and some improvement in the economic data. But we are sceptical that the... 13th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update EM catch-up no longer the norm More EMs’ income levels have fallen relative to the US’s than have risen this year, the first time this has happened since the 1990s. This is likely to be a sign of things to come in the 2020s. 13th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3 2019) The pick-up in Russian GDP growth to 1.7% y/y in Q3 appears to have been driven by a turnaround in the agricultural and wholesale trade sectors. But even though growth has strengthened, falling... 13th November 2019 · 2 mins read
