Emerging Markets Economics Update What does the fall in oil prices mean for EMs? The $10pb fall in global oil prices over the past couple of weeks will improve the terms of trade for major EM oil importers, such as India, and will help to provide some relief for countries with... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) May’s manufacturing PMI data supports our view that growth in Central Europe will slow over the rest of this year. The recent tightening of financial conditions in Turkey appears to be weighing more... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungarian stimulus, Ukraine & IMF, Turkey’s double-dip The fiscal stimulus package unveiled in Hungary this week adds to reasons to think that the economy will grow more quickly than most anticipate over the course of this year. Meanwhile, positive... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe driven by domestic demand The full breakdown of Q1 GDP data for the economies of Central Europe confirmed that domestic demand remains the main driver of growth, although there was a surprisingly large boost from net trade in... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Monetary tightening comes into focus Emerging Europe has been one of the few parts of the emerging world where attention has centred on monetary tightening (rather than loosening) in the past month. A rise in core inflation to multi-year... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM currencies vulnerable to renminbi depreciation The relationship between the renminbi and other emerging market currencies has strengthened in recent years. While the response to renewed US-China tensions has been limited so far, if the renminbi... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (May) May’s set of ESIs suggests that aggregate GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe slowed to 3.5% y/y in Q2 following impressively strong growth of 4.3% y/y in Q1. 28th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey capital controls, Russia’s looming rate cut Steps taken this week by Turkish officials to shore up the lira could be the first move towards the imposition of capital controls, but if anything these are likely to store up larger falls in the... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What’s behind the slump in commodity producers? The weakness in EM commodity producers at the start of the year seems to reflect a coincidence of shocks, and probably won’t last. But the key point is that many commodity producers are yet to fully... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE GDP, Turkey fiscal stimulus & Russian tainted oil An impressive batch of GDP data from Central and Eastern Europe, released this week, added to the evidence that strong domestic demand is offsetting external weakness. Elsewhere, Turkey’s budget... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Echoes of 2018 This month’s escalation of US-China trade tensions and renewed concerns about Argentina and Turkey’s economic vulnerabilities have clear parallels with 2018, when these same factors triggered a sell... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2019) Another strong batch of GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe suggests that strong domestic demand continued to offset weak external demand in Q1. We expect that growth will remain robust over the... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Impact of US auto tariffs limited to a few countries With the twists and turns in the US-China trade talks grabbing most of the headlines, the looming deadline for the decision on US auto tariffs as part of the Section 232 investigation has received... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Rising trade tensions and what they mean for EMs The latest increase in trade tensions between the US and China so far appears to have had a larger impact on EM currency markets than previous flare-ups in the trade war. But the impact of the latest... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Regional slowdown, Turkey’s bumpy recovery The raft of Q1 GDP data due next week are likely to show that aggregate growth in Emerging Europe slowed to its weakest pace in over two years. Much of this reflects weakness in Russia; growth in... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM LC bonds unlikely to keep tracking US Treasuries While the average EM 10-year local currency sovereign bond yield has followed the equivalent US Treasury yield very closely recently, we doubt that this will last much longer. Indeed, we forecast that... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
