Emerging Markets Economics Update The spiralling trade war and what it means for EMs The latest phase of the trade war is likely to have a relatively limited direct impact on EM exports. But with the US and Chinese policymakers upping the ante, the indirect effects via a hit to... 6th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s Inflation Report, Russia sanctions, Polish inflation The Turkish central bank’s optimistic inflation forecasts add weight to our view that monetary easing is likely to go too far and will ultimately have to reverse course. Elsewhere, although the rise... 2nd August 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) July’s batch of manufacturing PMIs point to a sharp slowdown in industrial output across Central Europe at the start of Q3. While the hard activity data have so far defied the weak messages painted by... 1st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier sovereign bond rally likely to go into reverse The recent rally in frontier sovereign dollar bonds is unlikely to be sustained and we expect spreads to widen in Argentina, Ukraine and parts of the Middle East. 30th July 2019 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jul.) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for July suggest that growth across Central and Eastern Europe held steady at a decent 3.5% y/y or so at the start of Q3. Strength in consumer... 30th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Early signs that EM growth has turned the corner Having slowed sharply in Q1 and at the start of Q2, it looks like EM GDP growth strengthened a little in May and June. Even so, with China’s slowdown set to resume and the global economy more... 26th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish rates, Ukraine elections, Czech tightening cycle Turkish financial markets took Thursday’s larger-than-expected interest rate cut in their stride but we don’t think that this resilience will last. Investors seems to be coming round to our view that... 26th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Risks concentrated in the usual suspects Economic and financial vulnerabilities remain low across much of the emerging world. But banking sector vulnerabilities are high in Turkey and China. And we are now explicitly forecasting a sovereign... 24th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industry unlikely to defy survey pessimism for long Manufacturing surveys across Central Europe have overstated the weakness of industry recently, but the strength of production growth looks unsustainable. As prolonged weakness in the euro-zone takes... 24th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia stuck in the slow lane Russia's economy remained very soft in Q2, although it does at least seem to have dodged a technical recession – albeit by the skin of its teeth. Much of the weakness seems to be concentrated in the... 23rd July 2019 · 16 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey to embark on aggressive rate cuts, Ukraine elections Comments this week from Turkey’s new central bank governor, Murat Uysal, and President Erdogan suggest that an interest rate cut at next week’s meeting will be followed by further aggressive easing in... 19th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jun.) June’s weak batch of activity data came after two strong months and suggests that after growing by an impressive 4.7% y/y in Q1, the economy maintained a similar pace in Q2. 19th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth picked up in Q2 Early signs suggest that aggregate EM growth strengthened in Q2. (See Chart 1.) Our GDP trackers point to a recoveries across most of the emerging world. The rebound seems to have strongest in... 19th July 2019 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: current account risks mount Strong domestic demand means that Romania’s current account deficit, which is already among the largest of any major EM, is likely to widen further. This makes the leu increasingly vulnerable to a... 15th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Erdogan at the wheel, inflation eases in CEE Developments in Turkey over the past week highlight that all levers of economic policy have effectively been centralised in the hands of one man – President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The reaction in... 12th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Set for a challenging second half of the year EM GDP growth has slowed sharply and, while it should bottom out soon, growth will remain very weak. Indeed, our forecasts lie below the consensus across much of the emerging world. 8th July 2019 · 25 mins read
