Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe: central banks to shrug off high inflation The recent rise in inflation to multi-year highs across most of Central Europe has only a little further to run, but it will stay above central banks’ targets across the region this year. Policymakers... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) The European Commission’s batch of Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) fell sharply in December, although they remain consistent with regional GDP growth holding steady at around 3.6% y/y in Q4... 8th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian inflation, Polish MPC, IMF slates Turkey The drop in Russian inflation in December, combined with comments from the central bank governor, support our view that there will be at least one more interest rate cut in the current easing cycle... 3rd January 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Dec.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in December means that this month’s interest rate decision will be a close call. For now, we think that the central bank will cave into pressure... 3rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) December’s batch of manufacturing PMIs for Central Europe remain consistent with a further slowdown in industrial production growth over the coming months, although there are tentative signs that... 2nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Weak Turkish lira, Polish inflation, what to look for in 2020 The Turkish lira has been one of the worst performing currencies this month and this probably sets the scene for next year. This is a key reason why we think that the central bank will hike interest... 20th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EMs set for disappointing recovery in 2020 EM activity slowed at the start of Q4 and aggregate growth in 2019 as a whole is likely to be the weakest since 2015. Conditions should improve in 2020, but we think growth across many EMs will... 20th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central bank’s easing cycles running their course Policymakers in Russia and Turkey have loosened monetary policy more than elsewhere in the emerging world over the past few months, but we think that easing cycles are nearing an end. Communications... 17th December 2019 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine’s IMF deal, Russian GDP & CEE inflation Ukraine is on the cusp of securing a new IMF deal but history suggests that the government will struggle to meet the Fund’s demands, which could put the recent rally in the bond market into reverse... 13th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Weaker outlook for occupier demand A weaker outlook for bond yields in Scandinavia and Switzerland means that falls in office and industrial yields are likely to extend into 2021. However, with rental prospects weak and yields rising... 13th December 2019 · 33 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will the wheels come off Central European car output? The recent strength of motor vehicle production across Central Europe will be increasingly difficult to sustain as weakness in the German economy persists. The Czech Republic’s vehicle sector is... 12th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov. 2019) On a net basis, capital continued to flow out of Emerging Markets (EMs) last month, and we think that 2020 will be the seventh consecutive year of outflows. 11th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A closer look at Russia’s National Welfare Fund There is a growing expectation that Russia’s government will adjust the way the National Welfare Fund invests next year. In this Update, we take a closer look at what this means and explain why... 11th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Nov.) The drop in Russian inflation to just 3.5% y/y in November increases the probability of another 50bp interest rate cut at the central bank’s meeting next Friday although, on balance, we think a 25bp... 6th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s domestic recovery & Hungary’s new super bond GDP and inflation figures released out of Turkey this week provided familiar signs that growth is increasingly unbalanced and we think that the central bank will ultimately be forced to reverse its... 6th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM debt: revisiting the risks Concerns about foreign currency debts in emerging markets have flared up again in recent weeks, but we think that the worst of these fears are probably overdone. FX debt burdens in most EMs have... 3rd December 2019 · 4 mins read
