Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey and the rising risk of (another) currency crisis The huge hit to Turkey’s balance of payments position from the coronavirus crisis and the evaporation of investors’ confidence in policymakers makes the risk of a currency crisis like that seen in... 11th May 2020 · 18 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Interpret incoming GDP & CPI data with a pinch of salt With the incoming economic data likely to be less reliable than usual, we think that investors should focus more on the timely low-level activity data and the changing shape of infection curves to... 11th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Putin in peril, CEE Q1 GDP The failure of the Russian authorities to contain the coronavirus outbreak and the lack of urgency with which policymakers have stepped up fiscal support has made us increasingly concerned about a... 7th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policy responses: the good, the bad and the ugly A worrying divergence is emerging in the policy response across the region. Policymakers in Central Europe imposed lockdown measures early which have succeeded in containing the outbreak. And the... 5th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs confirm manufacturing meltdown The drop in the EM manufacturing PMI to 42.7 in April confirms that industry is collapsing in Q2. Even though industry will bounce back in the EMs starting to ease lockdown measures, the weakness of... 4th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The lowdown on EM lockdowns In those EMs that were quick to control their coronavirus outbreaks (South Africa, Poland, Vietnam), lockdowns are being eased which will allow activity to gradually recover. But the damage from... 4th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) April’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe fell off a cliff and point to industrial production declining at a record pace in Q2. With lockdown measures being lifted activity in The Czech Republic... 4th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Storm brewing in Turkey, Czech easing restrictions The coronavirus is having a significant impact on Turkey’s balance of payments and, while the lira broke through 7/$ today, efforts to defend the currency are far from over. This risks a much larger... 1st May 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Many EMs still have a lot of work to do The good news is that a handful of the early responders to Covid-19, including Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Czech Republic, have successfully flattened their infection curves. As life starts to get... 29th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Early signs point to steep economic downturn There are encouraging signs that the authorities in Central Europe have brought the virus under control and policymakers are slowly starting to ease lockdown measures, which will support a recovery in... 29th April 2020 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) The collapse in April’s Economic Sentiment Indicators to levels not recorded before in Central and Eastern Europe point to GDP falling by around 6.0% y/y at the start of Q2, more than twice as large... 29th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How much will labour markets suffer? The coronavirus crisis is likely to cause unemployment rates to jump by 5%-points or so across most of the region in Q2 and we think the labour market fallout could be much worse in Turkey. However... 28th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Long-lasting economic damage We estimate that aggregate EM GDP will shrink by 4% this year, by far the worst outturn since reliable records began in 1960. The recovery will be fitful, with output at an aggregate level likely to... 28th April 2020 · 26 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Futile lira defence, CEE bond purchases Turkish policymakers’ efforts to prevent the lira from slipping through 7/$ will prove futile and, with the chances of an IMF deal slim, the government has turned to import compression to counter... 24th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs would suffer from a drop in remittances? Remittances held up well during the Global Financial Crisis but the scale (and type) of job losses in the current crisis mean that they are likely to fall sharply in the coming months. A drop in... 24th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Deepest contraction since the collapse of communism Emerging Europe will experience its largest decline in real GDP this year since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The aggressive policy response across Central Europe and the ability of the... 23rd April 2020 · 18 mins read
