Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Glapinski holding out … but rate hikes coming soon Governor Glapinski’s post-meeting press conference this week shifted in a more hawkish direction and we now think that some modest tightening of monetary policy (50bp in total) will be delivered in... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Central Asia’s boom comes with commodity risks This week we participated in an Emerging Markets Forum in Monaco, with a special focus on Central Asia. The key takeaway is that the growth outlook in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan remains strong and... 9th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s upcoming budget will test the bond rally Hungary’s government will announce its long-awaited fiscal review this month, and we expect a budget deficit projection around 5.5% of GDP for 2027, down from a shortfall of more than 7.0% this year... 8th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Oct. 2026) 7th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: pressure to hike rates will continue to build The reintroduction of fuel price caps in Poland has eased immediate pressure on policymakers to hike interest rates, which had looked like a close call for the November rate setting meeting. Given the... 6th October 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep. 2026) The larger-than-expected drop in Turkish inflation last month, to 29.7% y/y, supports our view that the central bank (CBRT) will begin cutting the one-week repo rate at the MPC meeting later this... 5th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s fiscal tightening, Romania under pressure The details of Russia’s 2027 budget point towards fiscal austerity, but it’s hard to view this as credible given spending pressures, particularly for the military. So there’s little reason to expect a... 2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Surveys point to robust Q3 in Central Europe The survey data for Central Europe published this week point to slightly weaker activity in September than in July or August, but it still looks like regional GDP growth over Q3 as a whole was around... 1st October 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Flash CPI (Sep. 2026) The sharp rise in headline inflation in Poland to 4.0% y/y this month, from 3.4% y/y in August, was driven by food and energy. As a result, we don’t think the MPC will shift towards rate hikes at its... 30th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Higher yields to weigh on property values in the near term Higher interest rates brought about by the ongoing energy shock are likely to push up prime property yields and hit capital values in the coming quarters, though rental growth should remain resilient... 29th September 2026 · 24 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tight EM credit spreads mask lingering fiscal risks Measures of EM fiscal risk premia are very low, which partly reflects genuine policy improvements in some high-risk economies. But a few countries such as Mozambique and Tunisia still face the risk of... 29th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary's new inflation target, Romania's fiscal mess The Hungarian central bank’s announcement of a new, lower inflation target this week puts the country one step further along the path to euro adoption. But arguably the bigger challenge in achieving... 25th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (September 2026) Emerging Europe has weathered the energy shock well so far and we expect regional GDP growth to strengthen in 2027. We remain upbeat on growth in Poland and Czechia, but more cautious than the... 23rd September 2026 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: new inflation target points to long rate pause Hungary’s central bank opted to leave its base rate on hold at 5.50% today, and the decision to lower the inflation target to 2.5% from 2028 argues for a more cautious approach to renewed rate cuts... 22nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 2026) Hungary’s central bank (MNB) opted to leave its base rate on hold at 5.50% today and the easing cycle will probably be on pause through the rest of this year as the central bank introduces a new... 22nd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s markets wobble, Russians head to the polls The stress experienced by some Turkish investment funds this week appears to have been contained, but it has exposed Turkey’s sensitivity to a reversal in foreign capital flows. An interest rate cut... 18th September 2026 · 5 mins read
