Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (July) The increase in German inflation to 8.5% in July was higher than most anticipated and suggests that euro-zone inflation will also come in above expectations tomorrow. This will support what we assume... 28th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jul.) The further decline in the German Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in July adds to the evidence that the German economy is on the brink of a recession as high energy prices and worries about energy... 25th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro nears parity, energy effects erase German surplus The depreciation in the euro to its lowest level in almost two decades against the dollar this week in large part reflects investors’ view that the ECB will tighten less aggressively than the Fed. The... 8th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update German wage settlements likely to keep inflation high Very high inflation and low unemployment are driving German unions to seek big pay rises in this year’s collective negotiations. We think nominal pay growth will be in the region of 4-5% this year and... 7th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (May) May’s small rise in industrial production in Germany was not big enough to change our view that output in the sector is likely to have declined in the second quarter. And with the timelier surveys... 7th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany and Spain Flash Inflation (Jun.) The fall in inflation in Germany and the increase in Spain in June largely reflect temporary factors and will not alter the consensus view at the ECB that interest rates need to be increased quite... 29th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Gas crisis heightens German recession risk Recent developments have further increased the chance that there is a complete end to Russian exports of gas to Germany. If this occurred, it would lead to a substantial fall in manufacturing output... 28th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jun.) The renewed decline in the German Ifo Business Climate Index for June provides further evidence that weaker demand is starting to affect manufacturing output. With inflation set to remain high and the... 24th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Rising interest rates to speed up property correction The weaker economic outlook and larger increases in interest rates are expected to weigh on property performance. With valuations under increasing pressure from sharply rising bond yields, we think... 23rd June 2022 · 31 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (June) A second consecutive small monthly rise in the ZEW measure of German investor sentiment in June means it was still well below its level at the start of the year, and pointing to a recession. The... 14th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (April) April’s increase in industrial output reversed only a fraction of the decline in March and shows that high energy prices, the Ukraine war and ongoing supply shortages are still having a major impact... 8th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany and Spain Flash Inflation (May) German and Spanish inflation data for May provide more ammunition for those who will argue at next week’s monetary policy meeting that the ECB should exit negative interest rates promptly, rather than... 30th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (May) The Ifo survey for May suggests that activity in Germany may be holding up a little better than we had feared. But the headline Business Climate Index is still consistent with GDP contracting in year... 23rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (May) The small rise in the ZEW measure of German investor sentiment in May left it still very low. And the current conditions index fell further, which is consistent with our view that the economy will... 10th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (March) The slump in output in March shows that the war in Ukraine is hitting manufacturers hard even before a ban on Russian energy imports has taken effect and before the ECB has raised interest rates. We... 6th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany & Spain Flash Inflation (April) The further rise in headline inflation in Germany, and increase in the underlying rate in Spain, suggest that euro-zone inflation will come in around 7.4% in April. This will do nothing to change the... 28th April 2022 · 2 mins read
