Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (September) The sharp increase in Germany’s headline inflation in September cannot be explained by temporary factors. With business surveys showing that price pressure remain strong and the labour market likely... 29th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Sep.) The further big fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in September adds to the gloom surrounding the German economy as worries about energy prices and declining household real incomes hit... 26th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Index (September) Slump in Ifo signals Germany in recession The further big fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in September adds to the gloom surrounding the German economy as worries about energy prices and... 26th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (September) The larger-than-expected fall in the German ZEW sentiment indicator in September adds to the evidence that the German economy is already contracting. Meanwhile, the final inflation figures for August... 13th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Renewed weakness ahead for German retail The rapidly worsening economic backdrop has put the brakes on Germany’s prime retail recovery. After showing strength in the second half of last year, take-up has now slowed in most of the main... 9th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (July) German industrial output fell a bit less than anticipated in July but that was mainly due to a rebound in construction activity, while there were signs that manufacturing production is starting to be... 7th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Nord Stream shut-off adds to risks facing Germany Gazprom’s decision to shut Nord Stream 1 indefinitely has added to the risks facing Germany’s economy, but the size of the economic damage is still highly uncertain. And the €65bn fiscal package... 5th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (August) Germany’s inflation rate resumed its upward trend in August. We expect it to be around, or above, 10% in October after the temporary measures which have suppressed prices since June are withdrawn and... 30th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Aug.) Although the Ifo Business Climate Index edged down only trivially in August it remained at a very low level and is consistent with the economy contracting sharply. After GDP expanded by a mere 0.1% q... 25th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Gas shock bigger than 1970s oil shocks For most major euro-zone countries the terms of trade shock from higher gas prices this year will be bigger than both the 1974 and 1979 oil shocks. How this plays out in the coming months depends on... 23rd August 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (August) The ZEW survey fell again in August and is at a level consistent with the economy contracting. We now think a recession is unavoidable in the second half of this year as the impact of high energy... 16th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rhine troubles add to pressure on German industry The fall in the Rhine’s water level is a small problem for German industry compared to the gas crisis, or indeed the recent shortage of semiconductors. But if it persists until December it could... 10th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update German office market at a turning point? German prime office yields jumped in Q2 amid early signs that the weakening economic outlook is weighing heavily on the office market. And while there were strong rental gains in the first half of the... 5th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jun.) The small increase in German industrial production in June was not enough to reverse declines earlier in the year and left output well below pre-pandemic levels. Things are going to get more difficult... 5th August 2022 · 2 mins read
