Energy Update Don’t miss the bigger picture in natural gas markets While front-month European natural gas prices have fallen sharply as concerns have eased around shortages this winter, longer-dated futures haven’t fallen by as much. That reflects how difficult it... 4th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update What does recession mean for German prime offices? German prime office rental growth is expected to slow sharply next year as the economy experiences the deepest recession in the euro-zone. Even so, we don’t expect rental growth to underperform as the... 2nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (October) Renewed inflation shockers in Germany, France and Italy in October pour cold water on expectations that the ECB’s softer tone on rate hikes yesterday will pave the way for a “pivot”. We continue to... 28th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q3 2022) The unexpected resilience of Germany’s economy in Q3, with GDP rising 0.3% q/q, has probably only postponed the recession which we now expect to begin in the fourth quarter. Business surveys show that... 28th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Oct.) The Ifo Business Climate Index held up better than expected in October but was still extremely low. With other business surveys also persistently weak, we think Germany will experience the deepest... 25th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (October) 25th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (October) The flash PMIs for October provide yet more evidence that the euro-zone is sliding into quite a deep recession but that inflationary pressures remain intense. 24th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (October) Although the headline ZEW investor sentiment indicator edged up in October it is still at a very low level, while the current conditions index – which is more closely corelated with GDP – actually... 18th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Consumer Prices (September) The reversal of temporary measures to reduce travel costs played a big role in the surge in German inflation in September. But underlying price pressures remain strong and broad based. We continue to... 13th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Aug.) The larger-than-expected drop in German industrial production in August was driven mainly by some volatile components and, together with some upward revisions to July’s data, suggests industrial... 7th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (September) The sharp increase in Germany’s headline inflation in September cannot be explained by temporary factors. With business surveys showing that price pressure remain strong and the labour market likely... 29th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Sep.) The further big fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in September adds to the gloom surrounding the German economy as worries about energy prices and declining household real incomes hit... 26th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Index (September) Slump in Ifo signals Germany in recession The further big fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in September adds to the gloom surrounding the German economy as worries about energy prices and... 26th September 2022 · 2 mins read
