Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (October) The rebound in auto output in October means that aggregate industrial production may increase in the fourth quarter. But with the services sector being hit hard by new Covid restrictions, it seems... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (Nov.) The increase in German inflation to 6% on the HICP measure was partly due to statistical quirks which should be reversed next month. But even the national CPI measure of inflation rose to 5.2%... 29th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuations worsen, but office and retail still fair value Higher alternative asset yields and falls in office and industrial yields contributed to a further deterioration in property valuations in Q3. The decline in government bond yields since then, which... 29th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Rising Covid fears will keep policymakers dovish It is too early to judge how serious the B.1.1.529 variant will turn out to be, but it certainly reinforces the case for central banks to be ultra-cautious when withdrawing their policy support. We... 26th November 2021 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (November) The fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) for November was in line with expectations and suggests that the German economy was struggling even before the recent tightening of Covid restrictions... 24th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Q4 outlook darkens as tighter restrictions loom Germany’s worsening Covid situation means much of the country could be subject to much tighter restrictions soon, potentially knocking around 0.25%-pts off euro-zone Q4 GDP. Even if other countries... 23rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Taking stock of the European natural gas market European natural gas prices were in the news again last week, soaring by 18%. Given stocks are still low and there are few signs of extra flows from Russia, we think that prices will remain high in... 23rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly The energy crisis rumbles on … This week showed that the energy crisis is not in the rear-view mirror just yet. Germany’s energy regulator suspended its certification process of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline on Tuesday, owing to... 19th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Rental recovery picks up pace The recovery in euro-zone commercial property values picked up in Q3, supported by a small fall in yields and an improvement in the pace of rental growth. While retail rents held steady, the quarterly... 16th November 2021 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Update Latest inflation data less worrying for the ECB than the Fed While inflation will stay well above target in both the US and Germany in the months ahead, the detail of the latest inflation prints seems to confirm that price pressures are likely to be much more... 11th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Focus Lessons from the EU’s carbon permit market This year, the EU announced reforms to its Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) which, if introduced, would boost the price of each carbon permit and ultimately help the bloc to rapidly reduce its... 10th November 2021 · 14 mins read
Europe Data Response German Inflation (October) The breakdown of October’s inflation data confirms that most of the increase, from 4.1% in September to 4.6% on the HICP measure, was due to higher energy prices. We suspect that inflation will edge... 10th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update German retail vacancy to remain elevated The latest data show that conditions in the German retail sector are improving. Nevertheless, we think vacancy will be slow to reverse as pandemic shifts lead to weakness in in-store demand... 8th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (September) The 1.1% m/m fall in industrial production in September was worse than the consensus and our own expectation. Business surveys suggest that shortages of components, particularly in the auto sector... 5th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Upward revision to our Germany inflation forecast The recent surge in energy prices and worsening supply chain disruption will keep Germany’s inflation rate higher next year than we had anticipated. However, we still think inflation will fall from a... 3rd November 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus How pandemic changes will affect European cities Europeans are returning to cities, though the return to offices has been much slower and this has had negative effects on city retail. Looking ahead, weaker demand for office and retail will weigh on... 2nd November 2021 · 14 mins read
