Europe Economics Weekly Germany to fund more than a third Greek bail-out? German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble’s acknowledgement last week that Greece needs more aid seemed like a statement of the obvious. Encouragingly, however the size of any new bail-out will be... 26th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Troika’s Greek economic forecasts still look too optimistic The Greek GDP figures, which suggest that the economy may have expanded in Q2, confirm that Greece has benefitted from the recent period of relative calm and stability. But a strong and sustained... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is another Greek election in the offing? While the withdrawal of the smallest party from the Greek coalition is certainly an unwelcome development, for now at least, the Government should be able to limp on. But if the Troika forces it to... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek bail-out appears safe...for now We doubt that the recent bout of political uncertainty, coupled with concerns over the Government’s ability to meet the privatisation targets set by the Troika, poses a serious near-term threat to... 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the Troika learning from its mistakes? While the IMF conceded last week that mistakes were made in Greece’s 2010 bail-out programme, it suggested that earlier debt restructuring was the way forward rather than bigger bail-outs. Meanwhile... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has Greece reached a turning point? The Q1 estimate of Greek GDP and the credit rating upgrade by Fitch suggests that the economy may finally be turning a corner. But we still think that the economic forecasts underpinning the rescue... 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) Q1’s flash euro-zone GDP estimate confirmed that while the euro-zone economy performed rather better in Q1 than Q4, it remained in recession. 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Would deflation lead the periphery into a debt trap? If the peripheral euro-zone economies regained competitiveness via outright deflation, their public and private sector debt levels would spiral higher as a share of GDP, prompting disaster. 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Have office property values reached a floor in Athens and Dublin? Ireland’s economy is still fragile, but occupier demand is unlikely to drop further. Thus reports of rising office values in Dublin in the first quarter may well prove a turning point. But Greek GDP... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook The crisis continues Recent events in Italy, Cyprus and Portugal have put a dent in hopes that the three-year crisis in the euro-zone is finally drawing to a close. Meanwhile, previous tentative signs that the broader... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are Greek economic prospects really improving? Recent news from Greece has provided tentative signs that the economic situation there is improving. But we still think that the economy will remain in recession for longer than the Troika expects and... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.) Italy and Spain missed their 2012 deficit targets by a small margin and timelier data point to further likely slippage in the initial stages of this year. 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone recession to deepen in 2013 While the lull in the euro-zone debt crisis has continued in recent months, the news on the region’s economy has remained distinctly downbeat. Despite some improvement towards the end of last year... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How long will the Greek relief last? The news that Greece will get its next and long-awaited bail-out loan payment within days will provide Greek and euro-zone policymakers with a bit of breathing space. But we doubt that this will bring... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Debt buyback won't transform Greece's fiscal outlook While early signs indicate that Greece’s debt buyback will be a success, it will not bring an end to the country’s fiscal crisis. 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How would exiting countries fare outside the euro-zone? Contrary to some suggestions, there are good reasons to think that, beyond the initial economic andfinancial disruption caused by an exit from the euro-zone, most of the current peripheral... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read