Europe Economics Update Greek bail-out has bigger problems than current dispute Greece and the Troika may resolve the issues that have delayed the latest loan disbursement soon, but this will not resolve the fact that the country’s bail-out rests on unrealistic forecasts. 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Stars still aligned for more ECB support Despite last week's stronger than expected euro-zone inflation figures, the combination of still very weak price pressures, the strong euro and recent falls in liquidity in the banking sector still... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Third bail-out will not solve all of Greece's problems The news that Germany is drawing up plans for another support package for Greece, suggests that policymakers are gradually resolving some of the problems surrounding Greece’s current bail-out deal... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dire household finances pose two risks for Greece Although the risk of a “Grexit” has diminished substantially, we think that the dire financial position of Greek households has the potential to trigger a renewed intensification of the country’s... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Deflation dangers cast shadow over recovery The European economy looks set for another year of weak growth in 2014, with the euro-zone likely to do little more than stagnate. Against that background, the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to... 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Subdued sentiment to hold back European property values The surge in UK economic sentiment appears to be breathing new life into occupier markets outside London and is a key reason why we expect commercial property values in the UK as a whole to do well in... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The pitfalls in the euro-zone’s road to recovery Although our forecast for euro-zone GDP growth in 2014 of 0.5% is now only a little more downbeat than the consensus estimate, there remain plenty of risks that could yet derail the region's recovery... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How much more help will Greece need? The situation in Greece has improved dramatically over the past year. But while the second bail-out has ensured that the public finances are in a better position than they were, Greece’s public debt... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Greek GDP (Q3) & CPI Inflation (Nov.) Q3’s final Greek GDP release revealed that the recession continued to ease. But with deflationary pressures building, Greece’s debt problems are still growing. 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Nov.) While Greece and Ireland remain ahead of their fiscal consolidation targets, Italy appears set to record a larger than planned deficit this year. 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Signs of growth convergence provide little comfort Q3's meagre rise in euro-zone GDP clearly was disappointing, but there were some signs that growth within the region is converging. The slowdown was largely down to weaker growth in Germany and France... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek recession shows no signs of ending Q3’s GDP figures suggest that Greece is not yet benefitting from the modest economic revival in the euro-zone as a whole and we continue to think that the economic forecasts on which its bail-out... 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Growth prospects improve, but crisis unresolved The European economy has shown further signs of recovery, with the euro-zone finally emerging from recession in the second quarter and other parts of the continent also faring better. But growth in... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are Greece’s privatisation targets flawed? A contentious component of the Greek bail-out package has been its privatisation programme. This Update summarises some of the views expressed at a panel discussion in which Ben May was involved at... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will tourism kick-start a Greek economic recovery? Recent developments in Greece’s tourism sector suggest that the economy might record another quarterly rise in GDP in Q3. But even if this is the case, we suspect that this will not mark the start of... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has Greece reached a turning point? The quarterly rise in Greek GDP in Q2 raises hopes that the economy has reached a turning point. But we doubt that Greece is now on the path to recovery and still think that further financial... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read