Global Markets Update Will Greece’s election be more important for EZ bonds than QE? While the ECB’s announcement of a bolder-than-expected programme of quantitative easing (QE) has driven the spreads of troubled sovereign bonds even lower, we are sceptical that this will last given... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Crisis 2.0? The onset of deflation in the euro-zone and the recent developments in Greece have served as powerful reminders of the lasting effects of the region’s debt crisis. The ECB will seek to tackle... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly SNB move is a heavy blow for the Swiss economy The sharp appreciation of the franc caused by the Swiss National Bank’s abandonment of its currency ceiling last week led to a substantial drop in the domestic value of the SNB’s foreign currency... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How might debt restructuring by Greece affect the IMF? Whether or not Syriza forms its next government, Greece is unlikely to default on its bail-out loans from the IMF. However, if it does so, the political fallout for the IMF itself would be serious. 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Asia Economics Weekly What would a Grexit mean for Asia? Problems in the euro-zone have been dragged back into the spotlight by the inconclusive recent presidential election in Greece. In general, Emerging Asia is well-placed to cope if the euro-zone does... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is a Grexit now more likely than ever? The absence of such intense market pressures suggests that the probability of an imminent Greek exit from the euro-zone is lower than it was in 2011 and 2012. But should market pressures reintensify... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Grexit dangers darken euro-zone outlook There is growing evidence that, even before the latest drop in oil prices, the US shale oil revolution had started to weigh on oil producers in Latin America. Oil exports to the US from three of the... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are markets right to be worried about Syriza? The prospect of gaining power has prompted Greece’s anti-bailout party Syriza to soften its stance on some issues. But markets are still right to be worried, given uncertainty around its plans for... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek crisis and falling oil price strengthen case for QE We disagree with speculation that the resurgence of the Greek crisis and the fall in the oil price have reduced the chance of quantitative easing. Indeed, we think that both factors have increased the... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What will be the fall-out from the latest Greek crisis? Contagion effects from Greece’s latest crisis have so far been reassuringly limited. But that may not last and the episode is a reminder that even those economies which have cut their budget deficits... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek yields to remain high despite programme extension The two-month extension to Greece’s EU programme, agreed yesterday by euro-zone finance ministers, was expected given recent wrangling over the Greek Budget. But the further austerity it could bring... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Further yield compression to boost capital values Further monetary easing from the ECB is unlikely to be decisive enough to put the euro-zone on a stronger growth trajectory, implying that the outlook for occupier markets is subdued. Nevertheless... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Troika call to pay taxes faster may hurt Greek recovery The Greek Government does not appear to have been too rattled by last month’s market turmoil, sticking to its budget plan despite opposition from the Troika. But it may come under pressure to seek... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece exits recession but big challenges remain While it is welcome news that the Greek economy has finally started growing again after seven years of recession, the recent GDP figures have not solved two of its, arguably biggest, problems: its... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The periphery catches up – oh dear One notable element of last week’s euro-zone GDP figures for the third quarter was the strength of the peripheral economies, even Greece, in relation to the core. This might be seen as confirmation... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Precautionary credit line may not be sufficient for Greece The Greek Government appears to have backtracked from plans of a “clean exit” from its EU bail-out programme in December, but it might still be over-estimating the extent to which it can finance... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read