Europe Commercial Property Update Investment turns a corner, but recovery will be uneven The Q2 rise in euro-zone investment marks the start of the recovery, but one that will be weak and uneven across markets. Economic and political concerns means investment in Germany and France is... 7th August 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Investment recovering, but not without risks While the UK led the recovery in investment activity in Q4 last year, the latest data suggest the US and euro-zone are now also turning a corner. But given concerns over economic growth in all three... 6th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update No Olympic truce for French and other EZ spreads While the recent financial market meltdown has pushed some euro-zone government bond spreads up, we don’t see good reasons for risk sentiment to remain so downbeat. So we expect the upward pressure on... 6th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) The euro-zone data do not scream “rate cut” – the economy is growing at a steady pace and domestic inflation has stabilised at a high level. But we suspect that most ECB policymakers will judge that a... 6th August 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (June 2024) Retail sales fell in June but we think they will gradually rise over the remainder of the year on the back of strong real household income growth and falling interest rates. 6th August 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Tourism to keep supporting southern outperformance Tourism in the euro-zone is likely to continue growing at a decent pace over the coming quarters due to rising real wages and increased capacity. This will be a particular boon to the southern... 5th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly September cut still likely; Germany-Spain divergence We think data released this week are just about consistent with an ECB rate cut in September, but with underlying price pressures still high that is not a done deal. Meanwhile, the recent economic... 2nd August 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office conversion proceeding faster than expected We have been sceptical of the viability of conversion of excess office space into residential units. But the latest figures indicate that, despite marginal financials, there may have been more... 1st August 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Focus EZ spreads on different paths after French election We have revised down our forecasts for government bond spreads in Spain and Portugal, but we continue to think that those in France, as well as in Italy and Belgium, are more likely to rise than fall. 31st July 2024 · 14 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (July 2024) The small fall in services inflation in July is probably just enough for a September rate cut to remain the base case. But with underlying price pressures still high, the decision will be a close call... 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily ECB still likely to cut in September despite mixed data Today’s release of inflation and activity data for the euro-zone has in our view slightly reduced the chances of a cut from the ECB at its next meeting. However, the bigger picture is that the data... 30th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Latest thoughts on r* and where rates end this cycle In detailed analysis last year, we concluded that equilibrium nominal interest rates would settle at between 3% and 4% in advanced economies in the next ten years. We maintain that opinion and in fact... 30th July 2024 (Updated 12th December 2024) · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany and Spain HICP (July) The increase in German HICP inflation from 2.5% in June to 2.6% in July left it a little higher than expected and means that the aggregate euro-zone inflation rate, which will be published tomorrow... 30th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2) & EC Survey (July) The euro-zone’s recovery continued at a moderate pace in Q2 and it should get a small boost from the Paris Olympics in Q3. But the bigger picture is that the timeliest surveys are fairly weak and we... 30th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone National-level GDP (Q2 2024) National-level data released so far suggests that euro-zone GDP growth slowed to 0.2% q/q in Q2 and the weakening of the surveys in July suggests GDP growth may have eased further this quarter. 30th July 2024 · 1 min read
