Chief Economist's Note A major global slowdown? Parsing signals from the big three On top of tariff threats and geopolitical ruptures, investors are having to grapple with notable signs of weakness in the recent economic data. With that said, while the outlook has clearly soured, we... 3rd March 2025
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (February 2025) February’s decline in headline inflation was encouraging because it was partly due to lower services inflation. We expect the headline rate to remain above 2% throughout most of this year but services... 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily The unravelling of US exceptionalism This week’s pull-back in the US stock market and the unravelling of US exceptionalism in equities since Donald Trump returned to the White House on 20th January have been driven by growing concerns... 28th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Climate Monthly: Risks to EU carbon policy; China reforms renewables The EU’s climate policy announcements this week point to a shift in tone that suggests a lower willingness to impose costs on private firms. That poses a growing risk to the future of the bloc’s... 28th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Germany defence fund, ECB cuts The special fund for defence proposed by Germany’s presumptive next Chancellor Friedrich Merz would secure funding for defence spending to rise from 2% of GDP to 3.5% and make budget negotiations a... 28th February 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q1 2025) Euro-zone prime property yields fell slightly in Q4, led by offices and industrial. However, a slowdown in rental gains as vacancy climbed higher meant that capital value growth slowed slightly... 28th February 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany (states), France & Spain Flash Inflation (Feb.) National data published so far suggest that euro-zone headline inflation dropped back in February, and that core inflation might have finally started to come down more significantly. (Euro-zone data... 28th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Update Is the EU backsliding on climate policy? The EU’s Clean Industrial Deal and Omnibus packages mark a shift in climate policy as pushback against the costs of climate action grows. With the EU less willing to impose costs on the private sector... 27th February 2025 · 4 mins read
ECB Watch ECB Watch: Moving from unanimity to dissent at the ECB The ECB looks very likely to reduce interest rates by 25bp next week, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%, but this will probably be the last “no-brainer” cut for some time. We expect the Bank to drop... 27th February 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (February 2025) Surveys so far this year, including today’s EC survey for February, suggest the economy remains very weak while inflationary pressures are still somewhat elevated. While the ESI did increase in... 27th February 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How could Europe finance extra defence spending? We think that there is likely to be substantial additional borrowing by European governments in the coming years to fund higher defence spending. This could amount to anything from 0.3% of GDP per... 25th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Industrial’s pandemic-era boom over; steady demand ahead Industrial property has been a clear winner over the past five years, with double-digit annual rental growth far outpacing expectations. However, as we predicted early on, supply has been responsive... 25th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ negotiated wage inflation will fall sharply this year The decline in euro-zone negotiated wage growth to 4.1% in Q4 last year is likely to be followed by further large falls this year. This is because tax-free one-off wage payments which lifted German... 25th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Focus Assessing the post-Ukraine war energy landscape While some Russian pipeline gas flows into the EU could resume as part of any Ukraine-Russia peace deal, at most such supplies would probably only recover to about a quarter of pre-invasion levels... 24th February 2025 · 15 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone underlying inflation easing gradually January’s inflation data show that domestic price pressures are strong but easing. We remain convinced that they will decline much further this year. 24th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What Germany’s election means for markets We think the new German government won’t prop up the country’s economy much. That’s a reason why we expect to see lower long-term Bund yields, a weaker euro and a poor showing from German equities... 24th February 2025 · 4 mins read
