Europe Economics Update What will higher rates do to the euro-zone? We doubt that the probable ECB interest rate hike on Thursday marks the start of an aggressive policy tightening. But if interest rates were to rise in line with market expectations, their impact... 6th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.) March’s euro-zone inflation figures increased the likelihood that next week’s ECB rate hike will not be a one-off. But the weakness of underlying price pressures in the region suggests that a major... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Mar.) March’s fall in the EC measure of business and consumer sentiment provides some tentative signs that the euro-zone recovery may begin to slow before too long, suggesting that an April rate hike by the... 30th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.) Public finances data for February revealed a familiar picture, with Spain leading the way with respect to its fiscal tightening plans while Greece continued to lag behind. 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone retail rental value growth outlook still pretty weak The latest macroeconomic data do little to alter our view that any recovery in euro-zone retail rental values this year will be lacklustre. They also seem consistent with our view that near term... 25th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone CPI (Final, Feb.) & Labour Costs (Q4.) February’s final euro-zone CPI inflation figures revealed that the rise in the headline rate was once again down to energy and food. With core inflation still very subdued and global concerns building... 16th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Mar.) & Euro-zone Employment (Q4) March’s small fall in the headline German ZEW index suggests that investor sentiment might be starting to ease in response to the ECB’s increasingly hawkish stance and global concerns. But this does... 15th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the "Grand Bargain" prove to be a turning point? Measures announced by European leaders late last Friday to try to resolve the region’s fiscal problems have provided the markets with a boost. But the measures are not as far-reaching as had been... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s euro-zone industrial production data suggest that the sector has made a reasonably solid start to the year. Nonetheless, they add to evidence that the wider economy has grown at a slower... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q4) & Final Comp. PMI (Feb.) The second estimate of euro-zone Q4 GDP provides some welcome signs that the economic recovery in the region is becoming a little more broad-based. But there are still good reasons to think that the... 3rd March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will the underperformance of French retail rental values last? Relatively low levels of sentiment among French consumers and retailers alike seems to have prevented the French retail market from undergoing as strong a rental recovery as in some other markets... 3rd March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb.) Most of the peripheral euro-zone governments made some progress towards getting their public finances under control in 2010. But those economies are set for another painful squeeze this year and... 2nd March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Feb./Jan.) The latest data on the euro-zone economy brought mixed news in the form of falling unemployment and rising inflation. 1st March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The latest euro-zone money and credit data continue to suggest that underlying inflationary pressures remain subdued. But needless to say, the recent surge in the oil price, coupled with the fact that... 25th February 2011 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB's hawkish stance to harden The recent batch of reasonably upbeat economic data, coupled with further signs that price pressures may be building, will ensure that President Trichet continues to strike a hawkish tone at next week... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Feb.) February’s EC business and consumer survey adds to evidence that the euro-zone recovery has regained momentum in Q1 and that the ECB’s hawkish stance may harden at next week’s Governing Council... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
