Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Sep./Aug.) On the face of it, the latest euro-zone CPI inflation and unemployment numbers would appear to reduce the chance of an imminent ECB rate cut. But with the economy on the cusp of recession and the debt... 1st October 2011 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Laying the groundwork for policy loosening At the press conference following his final meeting as ECB President, Jean-Claude Trichet will strike a more downbeat tone, suggesting that interest rate cuts are not far off. We are still pencilling... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Sep.) Recent news shows that many of the euro-zone’s fiscally-challenged economies are broadly on track to meet their 2011 budget deficit goals. Nonetheless, we continue to think that several of the region... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Sep.) September’s fall in the EC measure of business and consumer sentiment adds to evidence that the euro-zone economy is on the brink of recession. 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Despite renewed hopes that euro-zone policymakers will adopt radical measures to solve the region’s debt crisis, we expect stresses in the banking sector to remain, increasing the chances of the... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New rescue plans are unlikely to save the euro Talk of radical new measures to bail out highly indebted euro-zone governments and shore up banks throughout the region suggests that policymakers might finally be considering the bold steps that... 27th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) The fall in the euro-zone composite PMI below the theoretical 50 “no-change” barrier provides the strongest sign yet that the region is on the cusp of recession. 23rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final CPI (Aug.) & Employment (Q2) The latest euro-zone CPI inflation data do nothing to alter our view that underlying price pressures are not as strong as the ECB fears and that official interest rates may fall around the turn of the... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Prod. (Jul.) On the face of it, July’s healthy rise in euro-zone industrial production suggests that near-term growth prospects may not be quite as bad as the business surveys have recently suggested. Nonetheless... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deepening debt crisis points to new recession The debt crisis in the euro-zone has escalated rapidly over recent months and could now come to a head sooner than we had previously anticipated. This is likely to have severe near- to medium-term... 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB paving the way for rate cuts After leaving interest rates on hold at 1.5% today, the ECB struck a downbeat tone regarding the economic outlook and acknowledged that risks to price stability are no longer on the upside, supporting... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German court ruling points to troubles ahead Today’s ruling by the German Constitutional Court that bail-outs already undertaken by EU authorities were not unlawful might come as a relief to highly indebted euro-zone governments. But its... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q2) The breakdown of euro-zone Q2 GDP added to evidence that the region is in the midst of a broad-based slowdown. With growth likely to remain subdued, even in the core, we still expect the euro-zone to... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Is the ECB about to turn? The ECB is likely to soften its tone markedly at this month’s press conference amid signs of a significant deterioration in economic activity. With inflation risks probably no longer deemed to be on... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Jul./Aug.) The news that euro-zone core inflation remained very low in August while unemployment rose further in July should reduce any remaining inflation fears at the ECB, adding to expectations of possible... 1st September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Aug.) August’s weak EC business and consumer survey added to the evidence that the euro-zone recovery has gone into reverse, perhaps boosting expectations that the ECB’s recent interest rate hikes could... 31st August 2011 · 1 min read
