Global Economics Update Kicking the Cannes down the road As expected, the G20 summit concluded today without agreeing anything of substance. Euro-zone leaders were effectively told to get their own house in order, something they have conspicuously failed to... 4th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi makes a dovish start, but won’t up bond purchases The ECB’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.25% suggests that it is starting to acknowledge the effects of the region’s debt crisis on the wider economy. But, for now at least... 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek referendum episode has let the cat out of the bag However the Greek referendum episode is ultimately concluded, the fact that euro-zone leaders have for the first time openly acknowledged that a country can leave the single currency is a potentially... 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Deepening crisis to prompt widespread recession The euro-zone debt crisis is having a severely damaging impact on the European macro-economy. Not only are the troubled peripheral economies set to remain deep in recession, but growth prospects have... 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct.) Further signs that some of the region’s most troubled economies are struggling to meet their budget deficit goals, coupled with growing evidence that the euro-zone is entering a new recession... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Oct./Sep.) The latest euro-zone inflation and unemployment data might leave the hawks at the ECB still concerned about underlying price pressures. 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Chinese whispers alone won't save the euro Despite yet another round of speculation suggesting that China is about to ride to the rescue of the euro-zone, Europe will still have to solve its own problems. Meaningful Chinese support would... 29th October 2011 · 1 min read
ECB Watch No rate cut yet, but more bond buying While the news on the euro-zone economy points strongly to the need for more policy support, there have been few hints that the ECB is intending to cut interest rates at its November meeting. However... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Oct.) October’s fall in the EC measure of business and consumer sentiment adds to the evidence that the recovery is well and truly over and that the region is suffering from far more than a fiscal crisis. 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone plans more peashooter than bazooka The plans announced by euro-zone policymakers overnight look more like a peashooter than the “bazooka” previously promised to tackle the region’s problems. We have not altered our view that the crisis... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Does a sovereign debt crisis always cause a financial crisis? While there are no direct historical parallels with the current situation in Europe, a review of past experience suggests policymakers may need to resolve the euro-zone’s sovereign debt crisis... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro survive the sovereign debt crisis? Policymakers’ latest plans to tackle the euro-zone debt crisis are unlikely to address the region’s fundamental problems and secure the future of the single currency. We still doubt that the euro will... 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final CPI (Sep.) & Trade (Aug.) The final euro-zone CPI data for September confirmed that both headline and core inflation rose sharply. But given the recent dramatic deterioration in the growth outlook, we still expect the ECB to... 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) August’s rise in euro-zone industrial production suggests that, for now at least, the sector is continuing to prop up the wider recovery. But this is unlikely to last. 13th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Euro still likely to slide further The dollar’s recovery against the euro may have paused but the outlook for the European single currency remains poor. The relative prospects for monetary policy and the risks of a renewed escalation... 12th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB supports banks, but drags heels on rates The ECB today opted to focus on unconventional rather than conventional monetary policy measures, leaving interest rates on hold but substantially increasing its support for the banking sector. But... 7th October 2011 · 1 min read
