Europe Chart Pack Divergences widen Some of the euro-zone’s survey indicators have ticked up in the past month. However, they almost unanimously warn of a renewed recession in the region, with the composite PMI, for example, pointing to... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Merkel/Sarkozy summit adds to break-up risk Merkel and Sarkozy’s pledge to accelerate their contributions to the euro-zone’s bail-out fund following today’s summit was vaguely encouraging. But far more striking was their lukewarm support for... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Spring bond redemptions may prove pivotal A new year may have begun, but it has not provided the euro-zone with a fresh start. The latest economic data confirm that the economy remains in a precarious position and the euro has continued to... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Dec.), Unemployment & Retail Sales (Nov.) December’s fall in the EC survey of euro-zone economic sentiment, together with November’s drop in retail sales and the still high rate of unemployment, confirms that the euro-zone economy is in a... 6th January 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to continue to resist bigger bond purchases After two consecutive cuts in interest rates, the European Central Bank (ECB) looks set to hold fire at its first policy meeting of 2012 on January 12th. And while further interest rate cuts are still... 6th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec.) The latest fiscal data add to evidence that the ongoing austerity programmes in Southern Europe have failed to narrow these economies’ budget deficits as quickly as expected. 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Final PMI (Dec.) The latest euro-zone inflation and PMI business activity data do nothing to alter our view that the euro-zone is set for another very tough year in 2012. 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Has the core/periphery yield spread peaked? The spread between property yields in core and peripheral euro-zone markets has risen fivefold over the past four years. But with the risks both to occupier markets and to the survival of the euro... 3rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) Recent monetary data have revealed that money and credit growth remain very subdued. The ECB’s latest efforts to improve commercial banks’ liquidity seem unlikely to have a meaningful impact on... 3rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Crunch year for the euro-zone With the euro-zone debt crisis ending the year much deeper and broader than it started it, it seems unlikely that the next 12 months will see a repeat of the (just about) “muddling through” process... 22nd December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Lower property investment volumes in store for Europe in 2012 If we are right that all euro-zone member states will fall back into recession next year, commercial property investment volumes in the region are likely to be a major casualty. We would not be... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Banks unlikely to ride to their governments’ rescue A closer look at the euro-zone policymakers’ new plan to “save the euro” has not altered our view that it will not bring the debt crisis to an end, especially since several key components of the deal... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak PMIs highlight downside risks to metals prices The first estimates of the manufacturing PMIs for both China and the euro-zone remained well below 50 in December. Despite the prospect of further monetary easing by the People’s Bank of China... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How vulnerable is Asia to a euro-zone banking crisis? The impact on emerging Asia of a fall in lending by euro-zone banks to the region would be small. However, Asia would be vulnerable if the crisis in the euro-zone caused global credit markets to... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.), Emp. (Q3) & HICP Inflation (Nov.) December’s rise in the euro-zone composite PMI did nothing to alter our view that the region is heading into a fairly deep recession, regardless of how the debt crisis develops. 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s euro-zone industrial production data add to evidence that the wider economy may have contracted pretty sharply in Q4. 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
