Europe Economics Weekly Greek deal does not eliminate break-up risks On the face of it, recent developments like the Greek debt restructuring deal and the ECB’s liquidity operations appear to have strongly undermined our view that a limited form of euro-zone break-up... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Debt deal not the end of Greece’s problems The successful Greek debt exchange should ensure that the second bail-out package is formally signed off before long, but it leaves Greek government debt still at an unsustainably high level. 9th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB puts the ball in governments’ court The ECB struck a downbeat tone at its policy meeting today. But having recently provided massive long-term loans to the banking sector, it is not prepared to offer more support before it has taken... 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Consumer outlook darkens The prospect of stronger growth in the euro-zone economy has been dented by a slew of bad news on the consumer sector. Not only did household spending contract by 0.4% in the last quarter of 2011 -... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q4) The second euro-zone GDP release for Q4 revealed that the 0.3% decline was due to falls in household spending, investment and exports. While GDP might stabilise in Q1, we suspect that this broad-based... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Greek debt deal go through? A high participation rate in the Greek debt exchange would reduce the chances of an imminent disorderly default. But even if all bondholders take part, Greece’s public debt burden will remain... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Credit crunch risks have not evaporated Having agreed to forego profits on its Greek government bonds and pumped billions more into the banking system over the past month, the ECB is unlikely to announce any major policy changes at its... 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Feb./Jan.) The latest euro-zone data revealed an unpalatable combination of stubborn inflation and rising unemployment at the start of the year, suggesting that the recent improvement in sentiment towards the... 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Monetary stimulus not enough to rescue commodity prices The additional monetary stimulus from the world’s major central banks undoubtedly contributed to the recovery in asset prices, including commodities as well as equities, after the global recession... 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update ECB reduces risk of UK credit crunch, for now The ECB’s second long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) conducted this morning should alleviate the risk of a renewed credit crunch, not just in the euro-zone, but in the UK too. However, UK bank... 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update LTROs won't solve the euro-zone crisis The ECB’s second three-year loan operation will provide further vital support for the euro-zone’s beleaguered banking sector. But hopes that the funds will also solve the fiscal crisis and breathe... 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb.) For now at least, Portugal, Italy and Ireland all appear to be meeting their budget deficit targets. But the Spanish deficit narrowed by much less than expected in 2011 and further slippage appears... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Feb.) February’s EC business and consumer survey echoed other indicators in pointing to a slight improvement in sentiment in the euro-zone. But there are few signs of the strong economic growth needed to... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth plans are too long term After forcing yet more austerity on Greece in return for the new rescue package agreed last week, some European leaders finally appeared to adopt a more positive focus, by presenting “A Plan for... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone commercial property recovery hopes dashed by PMIs This morning’s “flash” release of euro-zone PMI data poured cold water on hopes that Q4’s quarterly economic contraction would be a one-off. Indeed, it looks as though the euro-zone is now in a... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Improvements in PMIs mask underlying fragility The first estimates of the manufacturing PMIs for February improved in both China and the euro-zone, but remain at levels consistent with further falls in the prices of industrial metals. The detail... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
