Europe Economics Update Greek referendum throws whole rescue plan into doubt The Greek government’s surprise decision to hold a referendum on the latest euro-zone rescue package has clearly increased the risks of a bigger and disorderly default on Greek debt and, ultimately... 1st November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct.) Further signs that some of the region’s most troubled economies are struggling to meet their budget deficit goals, coupled with growing evidence that the euro-zone is entering a new recession... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Oct./Sep.) The latest euro-zone inflation and unemployment data might leave the hawks at the ECB still concerned about underlying price pressures. 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Policymakers fail to get ahead The plans agreed at last week’s EU summit look like another example of policymakers sprinting to catch up with events, but failing to get decisively ahead. We are not suggesting that the positive... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Chinese whispers alone won't save the euro Despite yet another round of speculation suggesting that China is about to ride to the rescue of the euro-zone, Europe will still have to solve its own problems. Meaningful Chinese support would... 29th October 2011 · 1 min read
ECB Watch No rate cut yet, but more bond buying While the news on the euro-zone economy points strongly to the need for more policy support, there have been few hints that the ECB is intending to cut interest rates at its November meeting. However... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Oct.) October’s fall in the EC measure of business and consumer sentiment adds to the evidence that the recovery is well and truly over and that the region is suffering from far more than a fiscal crisis. 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone plans more peashooter than bazooka The plans announced by euro-zone policymakers overnight look more like a peashooter than the “bazooka” previously promised to tackle the region’s problems. We have not altered our view that the crisis... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Office development tax hike adds downside risk to Paris rental outlook This year’s changes to property taxation in Ile de France could result in a larger proportion of the potential office development pipeline being delivered to the market than otherwise might be... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How damaging will a Greek default be? The immediate fall-out from a Greek default should be manageable and much less damaging than that which followed the collapse of Lehmans, even if it does count as a “credit event”. However, this... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Does a sovereign debt crisis always cause a financial crisis? While there are no direct historical parallels with the current situation in Europe, a review of past experience suggests policymakers may need to resolve the euro-zone’s sovereign debt crisis... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.) The steep fall in the euro-zone composite PMI further below the theoretical 50 “no-change” barrier supports our view that the consensus outlook for GDP growth in the region is far too optimistic. 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Crunch time, again Aware of what is at stake and under the watchful glare of the world, euro-zone policymakers might finally put their differences aside and produce the goods at the forthcoming EC council meetings and... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Oct.) On the face of it, October’s modest decline in the headline Ifo index suggests that the German economy is still holding up reasonably well, but we continue to think that the index is understating the... 22nd October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Stability of Spanish office capital values won’t last much longer The stability of Spanish office capital values over the past two years does not preclude a second leg to the downturn. If anything, the prospects for office occupier demand and rental values have... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Growing risk of another recession We expect growth to be very low or negative in most advanced economies next year. The euro-zone is already heading for recession, and if its public debt and banking crisis is not contained, the rest... 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
