Europe Economics Weekly Heading for another recession Last week proved to be another rollercoaster week for Greece. We now think that the Government may end up defaulting within months or perhaps even weeks. With concerns about banks’ solvency likely to... 20th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final CPI (Aug.) & Employment (Q2) The latest euro-zone CPI inflation data do nothing to alter our view that underlying price pressures are not as strong as the ECB fears and that official interest rates may fall around the turn of the... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Prod. (Jul.) On the face of it, July’s healthy rise in euro-zone industrial production suggests that near-term growth prospects may not be quite as bad as the business surveys have recently suggested. Nonetheless... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greece’s second bail-out dead and buried? On the face of it, the recent fall in Greek sovereign CDS premia and press reports suggesting that Greece will receive the fourth tranche of loans from its bail-out package in March are encouraging... 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deepening debt crisis points to new recession The debt crisis in the euro-zone has escalated rapidly over recent months and could now come to a head sooner than we had previously anticipated. This is likely to have severe near- to medium-term... 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Core and periphery still at loggerheads More signs emerged last week that policymakers in the core economies are unwilling to soften the conditions attached to current or future bail-outs. For now, though, Greece looks set to bow to EC, ECB... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB paving the way for rate cuts After leaving interest rates on hold at 1.5% today, the ECB struck a downbeat tone regarding the economic outlook and acknowledged that risks to price stability are no longer on the upside, supporting... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Spanish industrial rental downturn has further to run July’s fall in Spanish industrial production extended the recent run of disappointing manufacturing data. The deteriorating outlook for occupier demand suggests that take-up levels will remain at very... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Greek and Portuguese GDP (Final Q2) & German Trade (Jul.) The Greek and Portuguese GDP figures for Q2 add to evidence that the recessions there will be more drawn out than either Government expects, suggesting that both economies will struggle to meet their... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Concerns about Italy to resurface The Italian Government’s recent indecision over the form of its latest fiscal package underlines the view that it is unlikely to implement the tough and unpopular measures needed to get the public... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Risk of a return to recession grows Developments over the past month suggest that there is a distinct possibility that the eurozone could soon slip back into recession. In particular, the ECB composite PMI now points to outright falls... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jul.) July’s surge in German industrial production will clearly ease fears of an imminent double-dip, but a renewed industrial slowdown seems inevitable before long. 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German court ruling points to troubles ahead Today’s ruling by the German Constitutional Court that bail-outs already undertaken by EU authorities were not unlawful might come as a relief to highly indebted euro-zone governments. But its... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greece at risk of an imminent default? In the near term, Greece may continue to receive EU/IMF support and grudgingly meet the terms of its bail-out, despite the ongoing problems surrounding the second rescue package. But it is virtually... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack CEE markets still outperforming, but outlook is cloudy In contrast to Western European property markets, investment volumes in CEE have continued to rise. But the latest batch of disappointing economic data from Emerging Europe suggests that investor... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB’s action won’t rescue the Swiss economy Today’s decision by the Swiss National Bank to apply a limit of 1.20 per euro to the franc is a bold move which it has pledged to defend at all costs. But in the end, there may be limits to how many... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
