Europe Data Response Euro-zone Ind. Prod. (Sep.) & Greek & Portuguese GDP (Q3) September’s plunge in euro-zone industrial production and the weak Greek and Portuguese Q3 GDP data provided additional firm evidence that the region’s economic problems continue to mount. 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How will Greece's extra financing needs be met? We suspect that policymakers may find a way to meet the estimated increase in Greece’s borrowing needs for the remainder of its bail-out deal without providing bigger loans. But if the economic... 13th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will Turkey's sovereign debt upgrade lower property yields? At the margins, a case could be made that Turkey’s sovereign debt upgrade could boost investor sentiment towards all Turkish assets, including property. But, in 2013, given the prospect of tight... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How the core economies managed before the euro The common perception that the euro-zone’s core economies are inherently dependent on exports and would struggle to grow outside the single currency is misplaced. They all achieved pretty strong... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek stay of execution won’t lift the economic gloom We’re throwing in the towel on a Greek euro exit in 2012. But that’s a matter of timing, not a change in our fundamental position on Greece or on the broader debt crisis. We still envisage a limited... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is the RICS survey too gloomy about occupier demand in France? Recent data from RICS showing that occupier demand in France has been falling are consistent with figures showing that office and industrial take-up has weakened significantly. The data also look... 9th November 2012 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Returns set to weaken in the year ahead If we are right that the euro-zone economy will continue to weaken, the drag on economic activity in non-euro-zone European economies is likely to intensify. As a result, occupier markets in non-euro... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Euro-zone property at a turning point The economic backdrop to euro-zone commercial property markets continues to deteriorate. Our forecasts, that all member states will experience some falls in economic output next year, appear to be on... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi provides very little comfort While the ECB apparently stands ready to buy peripheral governments’ bonds, President Draghi gave little assurance today about when it might start or how many it might purchase. He also ruled out... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What's next for Greece? The passing of the omnibus bill by Parliament last night means that Greece has taken a decisive step towards gaining the next loan tranche of its latest bail-out. But although this has reduced the... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Mixed signals on Q3 growth The economic data has provided somewhat conflicting messages on the likely strength of the euro-zone economy during the third quarter of the year. While the hard data on industrial production and... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Sep. 12) September’s German industrial production figures poured cold water on recent talk of a recovery in the euro-zone’s biggest economy. 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could Romanian retail be a good medium-term bet? Fresh signs of life in the consumer sector, together with relatively low retail property prices, seem to have prompted investor interest in the Romanian retail market. But the immediate outlook for... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone unemployment has much further to rise We suspect that the recent rise in the euro-zone unemployment rate is a sign of things to come and see the rate peaking at about 13.5% next year. This, together with continued fiscal austerity, is... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Firms and households still unwilling to borrow October’s ECB Bank Lending Survey revealed that banks tightened their lending criteria further despite easing strains related to the sovereign debt crisis. And weak demand for loans was a more... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB adamant about conditions for bond buying The ECB seems set to remain on standby this month. With just the announcement of its Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme still buoying market sentiment, the Bank has yet to be called upon... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
