Europe Economics Update Riksbank pushes back rate rise expectations Sweden’s Riksbank has pushed back its expectations for a rate rise. Although the negative impact of previous falls in energy prices on inflation is fading and domestic inflationary pressures are... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update German industrial yields to fall despite looking relatively expensive Economic uncertainty and lower business and consumer confidence resulting from Brexit are likely to weigh on German GDP growth over the coming 18 months, leading to slower industrial rental growth... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank pushes back rate rise expectations Sweden’s Riksbank has pushed back its expectations for a rate rise. Although the negative impact of previous falls in energy prices on inflation is fading and domestic inflationary pressures are... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May) & Final PMIs (June) May’s euro-zone retail sales data point to a slowdown in consumer spending growth, and thus GDP growth, in Q2. And despite a small upward revision from the flash release, June’s Composite PMI also... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Coal supply to fall further this year, but so should demand The rally in coal prices over the past month has boosted investor sentiment. Admittedly, production in China, the US and Indonesia has finally started to fall. But prices have now risen to levels... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Germany won’t suffer most from Brexit vote While German exporters are particularly vulnerable to weaker demand from the UK following the Brexit vote, the economy is also well-placed to benefit from any relocation of financial services or... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (June) Portugal and Greece seem have made some good headway towards repairing their public finances so far this year, in contrast with Italy and Spain which are both struggling to make any improvement... 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Brexit impact will be ultimately positive for euro-zone prime property The commercial construction PMI fell to its lowest level since mid-2009 in June. This highlights the extent to which the uncertainty around the EU referendum was weighing on developers’ activity. The... 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What scope do European cities have to profit from any Brexit job shifts? The UK’s vote to leave the EU has increased the risk of financial sector jobs moving from London to cities such as Dublin, Frankfurt or Paris. Given existing vacancy levels and near-term pipelines... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Brexit to hit France harder than Germany On the face of it, Germany seems more exposed than France to the effects of the UK leaving the EU. But in the time before the UK actually leaves the single market, France is more vulnerable than... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (May) & Manufacturing PMIs (June) May’s fall in euro-zone unemployment shows that the labour market is slowly recovering. Butemployment growth may already have peaked and there is still too much slack to generate any meaningful wage... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Market moves could destabilise the euro-zone periphery Recent market movements point to a downturn in euro-zone growth, particularly in the periphery. The ECB is likely to respond by loosening monetary policy, but it cannot solve all of the euro-zone’s... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jun.) & German Retail Sales (May) June’s rise in euro-zone CPI inflation into positive territory might mark the start of an upward trend, but we see little hope of inflation hitting the ECB’s target over the medium term. 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update After Brexit, will Quitaly be next? Italian opposition to the EU is strong and several forces could cause that hostility to grow. October’s constitutional reform referendum will provide voters with an opportunity to oust the prime... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Jun.) June’s increase in German inflation back into positive territory may well mark the start of an upward trend. But even in Germany, we do not think that inflation is on track to reach the ECB’s near 2%... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (June) June’s fall in euro-zone business and consumer confidence suggests that the euro-zone economy was slowing even before the UK voted to leave the EU. 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
