UK Economics Good politics on wages meets bad economics The government’s plan to decrease the UK’s reliance on migrant labour in order to boost wages may be good politics, but it is not good economics. While labour shortages may push up wages in some... 8th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE investment recovery to pick up from 2022 We think a greater reliance on foreign capital and tighter monetary conditions will leave CEE investment activity lagging the euro-zone in H2. Overall, transactions are set to end the year 5% lower... 8th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update We think the Norwegian krone’s rally is nearing its end Although the krone has rallied this year on the back of high energy prices and the expectation of tighter monetary policy, we do not expect this to continue. We think slowing global growth and... 7th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Headwinds strengthening Supply shortages and rising energy prices are becoming stronger headwinds to the euro-zone recovery. The latest data from Germany showed sharp falls in industrial orders and production, with... 7th October 2021 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI ends asset purchases, rate hike now likely in 2022 The Bank of Israel revised up its forecast for GDP growth at today’s meeting and struck a more hawkish tone on inflation as it announced that it will end its asset purchase programme later this year... 7th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB growing more uncertain about inflation outlook The account of September’s ECB meeting revealed many policymakers believed that inflation may stay higher for longer than the Bank’s projections show. Recent developments have added to the upside... 7th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Can Europe keep the lights on? The extraordinary rise in European gas prices in recent weeks has raised the possibility that, as a last resort, European governments may need to ration the supply of electricity to businesses or... 7th October 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update What do the latest UK jobs data tell us? UK employment has recovered strongly in recent quarters and is set to see further growth into 2022. This will be good news for UK offices, especially in regional cities. But with occupiers set to look... 7th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Did Europeans leave cities (and have they returned)? The pandemic and widespread use of remote working appeared to entice some Europeans to leave cities last year. However, the recent improvement in city mobility adds evidence to our view that this... 7th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (August) The whopping 4.7% m/m fall in German manufacturing production in August left industrial output 9.0% below its February 2020 level. With conditions having worsened since then, Germany’s manufacturing... 7th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Sep.) Russian inflation accelerated to a fresh five-year high of 7.4% y/y in September and, while this was mainly driven by a sharp increase in food inflation, the central bank is likely to continue its... 6th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Natural gas prices now untenably high The price of European natural gas (TTF) surged by around 35% this morning, before crashing back down on Putin’s reassuring comments about Russian supply. The latest price moves appear speculative, and... 6th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP catches everyone off guard with a surprise hike The National Bank of Poland (NBP) unexpectedly hiked its policy rate by 40bp to 0.50% at today’s MPC meeting, but the accompanying communications were underwhelming and suggest that the rate hike was... 6th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What to expect from the next Czech government The Czech parliamentary election that kicks off on Friday looks to be one of the most unpredictable for some time. A victory for the incumbent ANO party would continue the recent trend of loose fiscal... 6th October 2021 · 21 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What to make of Sweden’s August GDP shocker? The eye-watering decline in Swedish GDP in August suggests that supply shortages and weakening global growth will continue to take the shine off the impressive rebound in the Swedish economy in late... 6th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) August’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that consumer spending on goods is flatlining. But overall consumption is still likely to have grown fairly strongly in Q3 as spending on services... 6th October 2021 · 2 mins read
