Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The continued fall in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for September provides further evidence that the regional recovery in Central and Eastern Europe has slowed in Q3 as supply disruptions... 29th September 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Aug.) The tepid increase in consumer credit in August provides more evidence that the economy didn’t regain much momentum after stagnating in July. And with the current fuel crisis restraining activity... 29th September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics High utility prices and tax rises a heavy hit to households The double whammy of higher utility prices and the government’s new “health and social care levy” will reduce real household disposable incomes over the next year or so by £16.5bn, or 0.6% of GDP... 28th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Revising up our euro-zone inflation forecasts As a result of the increase in gas prices, we now think that euro-zone headline inflation will soon hit 4% and that it will average 2% in 2022. But headline and core inflation still look set to fall... 28th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor A strong Q3 for LatAm, weakness in much of Asia The latest data suggest that GDP growth in much of Emerging Asia slowed markedly in Q3, and that the recovery in Emerging Europe lost a bit of steam. Latin American economies generally strengthened... 27th September 2021 · 2 mins read
CE Spotlight Have emerging markets vanquished inflation? Low inflation is here to stay in much of the emerging world. However, there is a significant risk that inflation rises, albeit moderately, over the medium term in several countries. This risk isn’t... 27th September 2021 · 26 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s external position still in dire straits Last week’s surprise interest rate cut by Turkey’s central bank is particularly worrying given the backdrop of the country’s fragile external position. While the current account deficit has narrowed... 27th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update No major policy shift likely following German election With the CDU/CSU and SDP having won very similar shares of the vote, the composition of Germany’s next government still hangs in the balance. An SDP-led coalition would probably pursue a slightly less... 27th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Bucharest industrial rental growth to underwhelm The positive near-term economic picture means that Bucharest industrial activity will maintain its momentum in H2, but ease further out as spending patterns normalise. But given the city’s large... 27th September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Industrial leads yield-driven recovery in values The recovery in UK commercial property continued into August, despite a backdrop of more equivocal economic data. But, while the economic softness should be short-lived and returns for 2021 are likely... 24th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech the exception as rate hikes slow, Russia sanctions Central banks have started to slow tightening cycles in recent weeks and, in Turkey’s case, begin cutting interest rates. As inflation pressures ease, this pattern is likely to continue. But the Czech... 24th September 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Why we changed our mind on the BoE There were two key reasons behind our decision to forecast that the Bank of England will first raise interest rates in 2022 rather than in 2023. First, there is more evidence that the rise in... 24th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Energy Update Three potential catalysts for lower European gas prices A mild winter in the Northern Hemisphere, a substitution of gas for other fuels in electricity generation, and/or a rise in supply via Nord Stream 2 could all send European gas prices lower in the... 24th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB rate hikes a distant prospect, Merkel era at an end Even as other central banks hinted this week at a shift towards tighter monetary policy, we doubt that the ECB will follow suit. Meanwhile, the business surveys suggested that while supply-chain... 24th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank and Riksbank to follow different paths Having finally begun its tightening cycle this week, we forecast the Norges Bank to raise its policy rate to 1.50% by end-2022, which is more hawkish than is currently priced into the market... 24th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: Industrial loses crown after 2021 Our forecast for the economic recovery to maintain its momentum in H2 bodes well for occupier and investment activity. But while we think industrial rental growth will pick up, we still expect office... 24th September 2021 · 19 mins read
