Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) & Final PMIs (May.) April’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that strong consumer spending growth in Q1 is unlikely to be repeated in Q2, and thus that GDP growth will slow. Indeed, May’s final Composite PMI also... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Target2 imbalances highlight uneven effects of QE The recent increase in Target2 imbalances does not suggest that the euro-zone is set for another crisis on the scale of 2011/12. However, it does suggest that countries in the core might be... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflation persists Euro-zone consumer price inflation remained in negative territory in May for the second consecutive month and the eighth month overall in the last 18. Fading negative energy effects mean that... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB holds fire but more easing still likely The ECB is in wait and see mode while it assesses the effects of its latest policy measures, but President Draghi left the door wide open to further policy action. We continue to believe that the... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (May) There was some good news last month for public finances in the euro-zone’s periphery as Moody’s upgraded Ireland’s sovereign debt and the EC decided to be lenient with Portugal and Spain after both... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Do negative ECB interest rates lead to higher saving? We disagree with recent suggestions that negative central bank policy rates encourage households to increase their savings, thereby reducing demand and weighing on inflation. In fact, the opposite... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How would the ECB respond to a Brexit? A Brexit and its after-effects could prompt the European Central Bank (ECB) to undertake further unconventional policy action, including measures to support the euro-zone’s financial sector, FX... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland holds rates but tightening cycle not yet over Iceland’s central bank kept its interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting. But with price pressures set to pick up in the second half of the year, further tightening will be needed. 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland holds rates but tightening cycle not yet over Iceland’s central bank kept its interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting. But with price pressures set to pick up in the second half of the year, further tightening will be needed. 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will a new government halve Spanish unemployment? In order to cut Spanish unemployment significantly, the parties that gain power after voters return to the polls in June will need to focus on retraining the workforce. But even if schemes were... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s recovery losing speed The European Commission’s measure of economic sentiment in Italy suggests that the recovery might have gained some pace in Q2. However, April’s increase in unemployment and other, more reliable... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (May) & Unemployment (Apr.) The latest figures on euro-zone inflation and unemployment maintained the picture of subdued price pressures across the region. 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) April’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that economic growth remains fairly slow. While the full effects of the ECB’s expanded stimulus measures will not yet have been felt, we doubt that they will... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Danish GDP (Q1) The pick-up in Danish GDP growth in Q1 is welcome news after weakness in the second half of 2015. But sluggish euro-zone growth will also weigh on Danish prospects, and survey measures paint a weak... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Danish GDP (Q1 16) The pick-up in Danish GDP growth in Q1 is welcome news after weakness in the second half of 2015. But sluggish euro-zone growth will also weigh on Danish prospects, and survey measures paint a weak... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Positive signs from Germany but more stimulus needed The German economy got off to a strong start to the year. The healthy 0.7% expansion of GDP in Q1 was driven primarily by a pick-up in investment but also increases in public and private consumption... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
