Europe Economics Weekly What would early elections mean for Italy? Italy now looks set for an early election. Opinion polls suggest that a this would deliver a right-wing coalition, led by the League, which we suspect would be even more likely to clash with the EU... 9th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Risk to the euro-zone from the trade war is rising The risk to the euro-zone from the US-China trade war is rising. And it seems increasingly likely that the US will raise tariffs on auto imports from the EU, which could tip Germany into recession... 8th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch One more hike by the Norges Bank; SNB to cut further Investors have moved in line with our previously uber-dovish forecasts for the SNB and the Riksbank in recent months. Meanwhile, although further tightening is in the pipeline in Norway, investors are... 8th August 2019 · 8 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Economic weakness to continue to weigh on equities The recent sell-off in global equity markets has hit the euro-zone harder than the US, but we doubt that this will continue. Equities in Germany have performed particularly poorly, which is... 7th August 2019 · 11 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update H1 data point to stronger German office rental growth The latest data for German offices suggest a better-than-expected start to 2019, as a result of solid employment growth and tightening supply. This has led us to revisit our office forecasts for the... 5th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone growth to remain slow in Q3 Another set of weak data published this week is consistent with the ECB loosening policy further fairly soon. We think the Bank is most likely to announce a rate cut next month and a fresh round of QE... 2nd August 2019 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (June) The jump in retail sales in June follows a fairly sharp contraction in May and feeble growth in April, and means that retail sales growth slowed in Q2 overall. With the boost from falling inflation... 2nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI & Manufacturing PMI (July) The unexpected fall in Swiss inflation in July, and signs of a deepening downturn in the industrial sector, will only strengthen the resolve of the SNB to resist the rising franc. There is a growing... 2nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment slowing, but no need to panic yet Commercial property investment activity looks likely to drop back slightly from the highs seen last year. But, rather than pointing to a downturn in pricing, we believe that this reflects investors re... 1st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update A flood of LNG to keep a lid on EU natural gas prices In this Update we are launching our coverage of the European TTF natural gas price. In short, we think that surging global supply of liquefied natural gas will keep EU markets amply supplied over the... 1st August 2019 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (July) The sharp fall in Norway’s manufacturing PMI in July adds to signs that the economy is losing momentum and lends support to our view that the Norges Bank will hike rates by less than investors expect... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (July) & France GDP (Q2) July’s decline in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is consistent with our view that, after probably slowing to 0.2% q/q in Q2, GDP growth in the currency union will remain subdued over... 30th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Rising chance of a recession in Sweden The decline in Swedish GDP in Q2 will make it harder for the Riksbank to sit on the fence. With the economy unlikely to find much support in H2, the rising prospect of a recession lends further... 30th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB ready to intervene; Sweden’s GDP to disappoint While the fall in the Swiss franc after the ECB meeting this week will have calmed some nerves at the SNB, we think that the currency will rise further over the next six months and it is a question of... 26th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What will the ECB do in September? Following Thursday’s press conference, some analysts expect the ECB to announce a package of measures at its next meeting in September. However, we still think that the Bank is more likely to roll out... 26th July 2019 · 10 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Dovish ECB paves way for lower rates elsewhere The apparent confirmation this afternoon that the ECB is inching towards loosening policy lends further support to our view that more rate cuts are on the cards in Denmark and Switzerland too. 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
