Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2021) Q4 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were generally stronger-than-expected as policymakers responded to virus outbreaks with only light-touch restrictions and easing supply shortages... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Dec./Jan.) Employment has recouped the falls after the furlough scheme, the unemployment rate has fallen to pre-COVID levels, job vacancies are at a record high and wage growth is rising. That’s a recipe for... 15th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will prime rents offer inflation protection? Our forecasts suggest that prime all-property rental growth across the main euro-zone markets is likely to keep pace with inflation in the coming years. However, this is more of a reflection of... 14th February 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Revisiting the case for a stronger dollar Although last week’s hawkish surprises from the ECB and the Bank of England weaken the case for further US dollar appreciation against the euro, sterling, and other European currencies, we are... 11th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment activity to show further strength in 2022 After a record-breaking 2021, survey evidence points to a strong start to the year for pan-European (excluding UK) investment volumes. With pent-up demand mostly exhausted, we expect transactions to... 11th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs looking well placed to weather tightening in DMs Rising inflation has put major DM central banks under pressure and interest rate expectations have risen. But most emerging markets look relatively well placed to weather a period of DM policy... 11th February 2022 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Braced for a US-style inflation surprise Since CPI inflation in the UK has recently been tracking CPI inflation in the US, we wouldn’t be surprised if this week’s inflation surprise in the US is followed by an upward surprise in the UK when... 11th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: tightening far from over as inflation surges Russia’s central bank (CBR) maintained the pace of its tightening cycle today with another 100bp interest rate hike, to 9.50%, and the hawkish communications suggest that the cycle will not stop until... 11th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Ingves overrules logic and the hawkish mutineers The main takeaways from this week’s Riksbank announcement were that a) Governor Ingves is stubbornly dovish, and; b) three of the six members of the Executive Board advocate “QT” this year. Given that... 11th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB only partly rows back from hawkish shift Sifting through the numerous statements by ECB policymakers this week leaves us still thinking that the ECB is likely to “recalibrate” its plans in March and pave the way for an end to QE and a first... 11th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Global property returns not expected to defy gravity The exceptionally strong rebound in commercial property returns has been clear from the middle of last year. While this came earlier than most expected, we think it reflected special conditions and... 11th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Inflation (January) The upside surprise to Germany’s headline inflation rate in January was mostly due to higher energy prices rather than rising underlying inflation. Nonetheless, core inflation of 2.9% is well above... 11th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Jan.) Inflation was stronger than expected in Switzerland in January, although the upward surprise was not in the same league as that seen in the euro-zone and Swiss inflation is still consistent with the... 11th February 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rental growth on the launchpad We already expected that rental growth would surge to a decade-high this year. But the strength of leading indicators and the low level of rents relative to income by historical standards suggest... 11th February 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics GDP (Dec. & Q4) When combined with the CPI inflation rate of 5.4%, the 0.2% m/m fall in GDP in December meant that the economy experienced a taste of stagflation at the end of last year. As it was driven by the... 11th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lessons from Europe’s past wage-price spirals While there are limits to the lessons we can draw from the past, Europe’s experiences since World War Two provide some guidance as to the outlook for wages and inflation. They suggest that the recent... 10th February 2022 · 4 mins read
