Europe Economics Update Euro-zone GDP not as good as it looks The 0.3% rise in euro-zone GDP in Q2 was largely due to a huge increase in Ireland’s GDP and the export of a cruise ship from France. Neither of these is a sustainable source of growth. With more of... 31st July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2) and HICP (July) July’s inflation data will have been a disappointment for policymakers as, although headline inflation fell in line with expectations, core inflation was unchanged at 5.5% and services inflation... 31st July 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Jun. 2023) Higher interest rates continued to gradually feed through to weaker activity in bank lending in June, particularly in the housing market. We suspect this effect will intensify as the Bank of England... 31st July 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Italy GDP (Q2 2023) The drop in GDP in Italy in Q2 means euro-zone output probably rose by 0.3% q/q in Q2, and just 0.1% if Ireland is excluded. Italy is no longer outperforming its peers and we think it will experience... 31st July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Track record suggests EU will be slow to adopt AI Europe benefitted less than the US from information-communications technology between the mid-1990s and mid-2000s because most of the innovative tech firms were based in the US and structural factors... 28th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Q2 resilience unlikely to last, but inflation to stay high National data released so far suggest that euro-zone GDP rose in Q2, but with activity surveys very weak in July and the full effect of monetary tightening still to be felt, we continue to expect GDP... 28th July 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE QE losses unlikely to lead to a big fiscal tightening We doubt the Bank of England’s cumulative net loss from its quantitative easing programme will be a big as the £150bn estimated by the Bank earlier this week. That’s because we don’t think interest... 28th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Little cause for optimism in dire transaction numbers H1 2023 was the weakest six months for European investment in over 10 years. And the difficult financing conditions and stretched valuations that have sapped investor sentiment are unlikely to relent... 28th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (July) The small fall in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in July leaves it consistent on past form with output stagnating and suggests that, despite the stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP data reported... 28th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany GDP (Q2 2023) National data released so far suggest that the euro-zone economy held up better than we had anticipated in Q2, with Germany still the laggard among major economies. We continue to think that monetary... 28th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response France and Spain GDP (Q2 2023) The big increases in Q2 GDP in Spain and particularly France suggest that the euro-zone has so far coped with policy tightening much better than feared. However, the France data were flattered by... 28th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB definitely maybe close to the peak The ECB’s decision to raise rates by 25bp today and Christine Lagarde’s guidance that another hike was a “decisive maybe” will not have surprised anybody. On balance, we think the Bank will probably... 27th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (July 2023) As was universally expected, the ECB raised interest rates by a further 25bp today and indicated that further hikes are possible but not certain. At the press conference we expect the main message to... 27th July 2023 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch 25bps hike and peak in sight We think the Bank of England will revert to raising interest rates by 25 basis points (bps), from 5.00% to 5.25%, at the policy meeting on Thursday 3rd August rather than repeating June’s 50bps hike... 27th July 2023 · 8 mins read
