The 0.4% m/m rebound in retail sales volumes in August isn’t as good as it looks as it partly reflected a pickup in sales after the unusually wet weather in July. And while the worst of the falls in real household disposable incomes are behind us, the full drag on activity from higher interest rates has yet to be felt. As such, we still think that real consumer spending will decline by 0.5% from its peak to its trough over the coming quarters.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services