UK Economics How will Russia/Ukraine influence the BoE’s rate hike plans? As it stands at the moment, we don’t think that the Russia/Ukraine conflict will delay or derail the Bank of England’s plans to raise interest rates further. That’s because the Bank will probably be a... 25th February 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (Feb.) The latest IPF Consensus Survey suggests that commercial property will have a better year than initially thought. Our total returns forecast for 2022 is in line with that of consensus, but beyond this... 25th February 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update The impact of the invasion of Ukraine on UK property Much has been made of UK property’s openness to Russian money following the invasion of Ukraine. But since the depreciation of the Russian ruble in 2014, Russians have become far less important to... 25th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Safe-haven franc not a dire concern for the SNB The divergence between gold prices and the Swiss franc/euro cross rate in the hours after the start of the invasion of Ukraine suggests to us that the SNB intervened to limit the sharp rise in the... 25th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine crisis to affect inflation more than growth As a result of the Ukraine crisis, we have revised up our inflation forecasts even further above the consensus. But we think that the impact of higher inflation on consumption will be cushioned by the... 25th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Feb.) February’s increase in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator showed that confidence was high before the recent news about the conflict in Ukraine. It also showed that supply shortages remained severe... 25th February 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Russia/Ukraine generates more upside risk to inflation Today’s grave escalation of the Russia/Ukraine conflict threatens to keep CPI inflation in the UK even further above the 2% target this year and reduce households’ real incomes by even more. The... 24th February 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update China won’t hurt itself to help Russia China’s leadership is trying to straddle a geopolitical divide. Russia is an ally, but being seen to take its side would hasten China’s decoupling from the West. Most likely, China will support Russia... 24th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Six questions on Ukraine and the euro-zone The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased uncertainty about the economic outlook for the euro-zone. While things are changing rapidly, at this stage we think the main effects will be... 24th February 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Markets Markets right to bet on interest rates peaking at 2.00% Our forecast that lingering price pressures will prompt the Bank of England to raise interest rates from 0.50% now to a peak of 2.00% next year suggests there is little scope for market interest rate... 24th February 2022 · 12 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Emerging Europe: All-property values jump in Q4 Sharp falls in property yields and an improvement in rental growth pushed CEE all-property values in Q4 up almost 5% q/q, the strongest quarterly growth rate since 2007. This was largely driven by the... 24th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update 8 questions about the Russia-Ukraine crisis This Update answers eight key questions for economies and markets in light of the escalation in the Ukraine conflict overnight. All clients are invited to a Drop-In at 14.00 GMT/09.00 EST when our... 24th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Ukraine crisis could add 1.5% to EZ inflation this year In an extreme scenario, the impact of the Ukraine crisis on energy prices could add up to two percentage points to the peak in headline euro-zone inflation this year, and one-and-a-half percentage... 23rd February 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Homeowners to keep on moving in 2022 Homeowners appear to be pressing ahead with plans to move house even though stamp duty is now fully reinstated. Transactions inevitably dipped last October as sales were rushed through in September to... 23rd February 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Jan.) Core inflation looks set to keep rising as the effects of global demand-supply imbalances persist. And the Ukraine crisis means that the risks to our above-consensus headline inflation forecasts lie... 23rd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update 2% inflation if Russian energy flows disrupted A spike in energy prices caused by significant disruption to Russian exports would lift Japanese inflation to 2% from April until the end of this year. However, the BoJ wouldn’t respond by lifting its... 23rd February 2022 · 4 mins read
