UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Mar.) House prices fell for a seventh consecutive month in February, taking the total fall from their peak in August to 4.6%. With house prices still significantly overvalued in today’s higher mortgage rate... 31st March 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Pound a surprising beneficiary of banking concerns Even though equity prices in the UK have fallen further than in the US and the euro-zone since the US bank SVB failed and the European bank Credit Swisse was taken over, the pound has strengthened... 30th March 2023 · 10 mins read
Global Economic Outlook From cost of living crisis to banking crisis? The strongest headwind for the global economy has shifted from an energy crisis and the related squeeze on real incomes to a potential banking crisis and associated drag on credit. Since banks are... 30th March 2023 · 46 mins read
Capital Daily Stubborn core inflation may be a headwind for euro-zone bonds Persistent core inflationary pressures will, in our view, keep euro-zone sovereign bonds under pressure this year, at least relative to those in other major developed market economies. 30th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Dodging a deep downturn, but challenges far from over There are encouraging signs that the energy crisis is receding, the worst of the downturn is passing and that inflation has peaked across the region, but this year will still be challenging. We expect... 30th March 2023 · 29 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany & Spain Flash Inflation (March) The big falls in headline inflation in Germany and Spain should provide some relief for struggling households in the coming months. And core inflation in Germany may now have passed its peak. However... 30th March 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update No flight in bank deposits, but bank lending growth easing While households and businesses took further advantage of rising interest rates in February by moving money into bank accounts with higher rates, they are not withdrawing money from the overall... 30th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Mar.) The small decline in the EC’s economic sentiment indicator in March leaves it still pointing to an increase in GDP in Q1. Meanwhile, firms’ selling price expectations suggest that core inflation might... 30th March 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Downturn moderates, but outlook remains challenging The partial reversal of the spike in mortgage rates following the “mini” budget has helped to stem the deterioration in housing market demand. Our measure of the average quoted mortgage rate has... 30th March 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Feb.) Net lending to property turned negative in February, as investors held back in the face of falling capital values. But the decline was small and even though the recent banking crisis will lead to some... 29th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Feb.) February’s money and credit data suggest that higher interest rates were a further drag on lending in February, particularly in the housing market. That’s before the effects of the recent concerns... 29th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Feb.) Reflecting the partial unwinding of the spike in mortgage rates following the “mini” budget, mortgage approvals rose to their highest level for three months in February. However, with mortgage rates... 29th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Recession needed to solve the inflation problem While CPI inflation will fall from 10.4% to around 3.5% this year, we think a recession involving a peak-to-trough fall in real GDP of around 1.0% is needed to ensure that domestic price pressures... 28th March 2023 · 27 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep policy tight despite recession The euro-zone economy is set to perform much worse than consensus forecasts suggest over the next two years, with a recession looking likely. That is mainly because monetary policy and bank lending... 28th March 2023 · 27 mins read
