Europe Data Response EC Survey (Apr.) The EC’s economic sentiment indicator for April remained consistent with the economy expanding at the beginning of Q2. It also suggests that price pressures (though easing) remain high and that labour... 27th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone wage growth to slow only gradually Wage growth in the euro-zone is likely to remain above the level compatible with 2% core inflation this year and only gradually return to a more sustainable level thereafter. 27th April 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q1) After a weak end to 2022, surveyors reported that occupier demand was essentially flat in Q1. All sectors saw an improvement and that suggests take-up will pick-up in Q2. That said, rental and capital... 27th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Why has Spain’s economic recovery been weak? Spain’s underperformance since the pandemic can be explained in part by the incomplete recovery in its tourism sector and in part by the sharp fall in real household disposable incomes. That said, we... 26th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation past the peak, but big challenges lie ahead Inflation has finally turned a corner. Headline inflation rates fell in March in all 14 economies that we cover, the first synchronised drop in more than a decade. This partly reflects base effects... 26th April 2023 · 15 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Upside risks, but scope for big rate cuts in 2024 The recent resilience in economic activity and stubbornness of inflation is raising market rate expectations, gilt yields, UK equities and the pound. And there is a growing risk that interest rates... 26th April 2023 · 13 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Partway through the correction While house price declines have slowed and economic activity has proven more resilient than expected over the three months since our last Outlook, we are sticking to our forecast that house prices... 26th April 2023 · 23 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Strong supply to drag on Spanish industrial rents Industrial occupier demand in Spain is set to slow sharply this year and next, as the economy falls into recession. And with both Madrid and Barcelona poised to see a record level of speculative... 25th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: The euro-zone inflation outlook and the ECB May meeting 1683036000 What do recent data signal about recession risk in the euro-zone? How high will the ECB take the policy rate to rein in inflation pressure?
UK Data Response Public Finances (Mar.) The news that total borrowing in 2022/23 was £13.2bn lower than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted only a month ago provides the Chancellor with more wiggle room to cut taxes and/or... 25th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack The monetary policy tide is (slowly) turning EM central banks have, in general, remained in hawkish mood over recent weeks. Tightening cycles have continued in Mexico, Colombia and South Africa in response to high inflation, while policymakers... 24th April 2023 · 9 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Early yield correction gives retail an advantage A fall in consumption this year will weigh on the retail sector, but an earlier correction in yields and rents mean it is less vulnerable to the recession. Indeed, it was the only sector to see a fall... 24th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Apr.) The Ifo Business Climate Index rose again in April but remained in contractionary territory. This is contrast to the PMIs which point to much stronger economic performance at the start of Q2. 24th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Mar.) March’s activity data out of Poland were weaker than expected and suggest the economy may now be in a technical recession. Activity may start to bottom out soon, but we don’t think the economy is set... 24th April 2023 · 2 mins read
