Global Economics Focus Chapter 4: Financial market implications Higher real and nominal Treasury yields in 2030, relative to the past decade, are one reason why we expect investors to be demanding a greater real return from risky assets in 2030 than they are now. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Focus Chapter 3: Where will inflation (and nominal rates) settle? Why we expect a more volatile inflation outlook in the coming years, and how central banks are likely to respond in setting nominal rates in this new normal. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Focus Chapter 2: How will the savings/investment balance affect r*? Why savings and investment incentives will become better aligned in the next decade than over the past 20 years, causing r* to rise. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Focus Chapter 1: Will stronger potential growth boost r*? Examining how the drivers that have been pulling down equilibrium rates are fading, and the strengthening forces that will push rates higher in the coming decade. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Focus Introduction and framework The analytical framework for our r* research, where equilibrium interest rates are determined by the potential rate of GDP growth and other factors which influence the desire to save or invest. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Focus r* and the end of the ultra-low rates era: executive summary Highlighting the key takeaways from our in-depth new analysis on equilibrium real interest rates in the post-pandemic global economy. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Climate Economics Update How green is AI? All else equal, our view that the AI revolution will lead to faster productivity growth in the late-2020s and early 2030s implies that greenhouse gas emissions will be higher during this period than... 16th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update The fiscal implications of the rise in bond yields Perceptions matter at least as much as actual policies in determining fiscal stability. Accordingly, the surge in bond yields over the past month poses the greatest risk to those countries where the... 16th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) The latest activity and survey data have provided even more evidence that the resilience in activity in advanced economies over the first half of 2023 is now fading. High interest rates are clearly... 13th October 2023 · 1 min read
FX Markets Valuations Monitor FX Valuations Monitor (Q4 2023) The US dollar has risen against most currencies since the start of the year, while most of our estimates of the greenback’s “fair value” are little unchanged. Taken together, this leaves the dollar... 12th October 2023 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Supply to drive relative copper/nickel price dynamics The trend of rapid increases in industrial metals supply this year is likely to unwind over the next few years for copper, but we think nickel supply growth will remain robust. We think that... 5th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Falling inflation at odds with ‘higher for longer’ The ‘higher for longer’ narrative on interest rates that is baked into market pricing is at odds with evidence of widespread falls in inflation. Higher oil prices mean that fuel inflation will be a... 5th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Calm and voluptuousness no more for luxury equities? Equities in the Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods industry have fared quite poorly recently, which has weighed on the luxury-heavy French stock market. But while they might underperform a bit more in... 5th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update The bond market sell-off and the global economy The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous... 4th October 2023 · 6 mins read