Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output cut, another delay to Egypt’s IMF review? Saudi Arabia announced it will roll over its additional voluntary 1mn bpd oil output cut until the end of the year, which we think will push the economy into a sharp contraction over the second half... 7th September 2023 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Aug. 23) August’s batch of PMIs for the region showed that activity in non-oil private sectors in the Gulf eased, but that activity remained strong. In contrast, Egypt’s PMI remained below the 50-mark and the... 5th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly SAMA drawdown, Saudi real estate, Egypt industry plans The drop in the Saudi central bank’s foreign assets to a 14-year low in July caused some concern this week, but we suspect this reflects funds being recycled to the Public Investment Fund rather than... 31st August 2023 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We think EMEA equities will continue to be a mixed bag Equities in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) have returned little in US$ terms so far this year. While they may fare better next year, we doubt they’ll outperform the wider emerging equity... 29th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly BRICS Summit, Morocco’s policymaking Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt were among six countries to be invited to join the BRICS bloc, which could solidify the shift in their geopolitical alignment towards a China-led bloc . This could... 24th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Oil output cuts are driving a sharp slowdown in economic growth across the Gulf. The hit to volumes will more than offset the rebound in oil prices but, for now at least, fiscal policy is being kept... 21st August 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s fiscal position, destination Dubai, Gulf inflation Egypt’s government debt-to-GDP ratio jumped to 96% in FY2022/23, one of the largest ratios in the emerging world, but there remain reasons to think that the government will be able to avoid a... 17th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jul. 2023) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate eased from 2.7% y/y in June to 2.3% y/y in July, the slowest outturn since the middle of last year and we think the headline rate will continue to edge lower... 15th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s recession deepens Oil output cuts fuelled Saudi Arabia’s economic downturn in the first half of 2023 and the drag from the oil sector appears to have intensified more recently. Taking together with signs that activity... 14th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco profit slump, Egypt back on the orthodox train? The slump in the profits of Saudi Arabia’s state oil company, Aramco, in Q2 has focussed attention on the deterioration in the Kingdom’s budget position. But the authorities appear to be taking as... 10th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Tightening oil market; Myanmar’s tin mining ban It’s been a mixed week for commodity prices. Industrial metals price generally struggled as activity surveys for China paint a grim picture of demand. (See Chart 1.) We suspect prices will tread water... 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Record SAIBOR, Egypt FX crunch, Saudi extends oil cut The Saudi Arabian interbank rate hit its highest level in over two decades and, with credit growth in the Kingdom slowing, pressure is likely to mount on the Saudi Central Bank to intervene and inject... 3rd August 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Jul. 23) July’s batch of PMIs for the region were a mixed bag, with the surveys from the Gulf falling back as they did in many other emerging markets but still pointing to robust non-oil activity. Elsewhere... 3rd August 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q2 2023, Flash Estimate) Saudi Arabia’s flash GDP estimate showed that the economy fell into a technical recession on the back of oil output cuts, whereas the non-oil economy continued to post robust growth. With the Kingdom... 31st July 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi sporting focus, Egypt dollar draw, Tunisia loan Saudi Arabia’s Pro League went from the back pages to the front pages this week after Al-Hilal record bid for PSG’s Kylian Mbappé. While the news has put renewed attention on the Kingdom’s sporting... 27th July 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi-UAE relations, Saudi inflation, Egyptian LNG A recent report in the Wall Street Journal suggests that tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE have increased. This may raise the threat of the UAE leaving OPEC+, which would result in global oil... 20th July 2023 · 6 mins read
