Commodities Weekly Tightening oil market; Myanmar’s tin mining ban It’s been a mixed week for commodity prices. Industrial metals price generally struggled as activity surveys for China paint a grim picture of demand. (See Chart 1.) We suspect prices will tread water... 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Record SAIBOR, Egypt FX crunch, Saudi extends oil cut The Saudi Arabian interbank rate hit its highest level in over two decades and, with credit growth in the Kingdom slowing, pressure is likely to mount on the Saudi Central Bank to intervene and inject... 3rd August 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Jul. 23) July’s batch of PMIs for the region were a mixed bag, with the surveys from the Gulf falling back as they did in many other emerging markets but still pointing to robust non-oil activity. Elsewhere... 3rd August 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q2 2023, Flash Estimate) Saudi Arabia’s flash GDP estimate showed that the economy fell into a technical recession on the back of oil output cuts, whereas the non-oil economy continued to post robust growth. With the Kingdom... 31st July 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi sporting focus, Egypt dollar draw, Tunisia loan Saudi Arabia’s Pro League went from the back pages to the front pages this week after Al-Hilal record bid for PSG’s Kylian Mbappé. While the news has put renewed attention on the Kingdom’s sporting... 27th July 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi-UAE relations, Saudi inflation, Egyptian LNG A recent report in the Wall Street Journal suggests that tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE have increased. This may raise the threat of the UAE leaving OPEC+, which would result in global oil... 20th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt privatisations, Dubai real estate A round of state asset sales announced in Egypt this week suggests that there is fresh impetus behind the privatisation drive and that the government is pushing to get the IMF deal back on track. But... 13th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (July 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 12th July 2023 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Russia & Saudi cuts; China’s control over critical metals Despite the flurry of macro data, it was a relatively quiet week for most commodity prices. Generally, a slight weakening in the US dollar, on net, contributed to small price rises. Oil prices were... 7th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil, UAE energy & mortgages, Morocco GDP The announcement by Saudi Arabia that it will roll over its voluntary 1mn bpd oil output cut through August has led us to downwardly revise our GDP growth forecast for this year. The UAE has been much... 6th July 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi non-oil sector softening blow from oil output cuts Activity in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector has continued to hold up well, but that is merely cushioning the blow to the economy from oil output cuts. 5th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Jun. 2023) June’s batch of PMIs for the region improved almost entirely across the board and the strength in the Gulf states marked a stark contrast to the weakness among other emerging market regions. Elsewhere... 5th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt long-run prospects, Morocco autos, the Hajj Egypt’s economy is on a path to become the largest in the region by 2050, overtaking Saudi Arabia, but this will hinge on the authorities committing to orthodoxy and undertaking key structural reforms... 28th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Tourism’s long road to recovery The hit to tourism in the region from the COVID-19 pandemic finally appears to be over. Receipts and arrivals are now back to, or even above, seasonal norms in almost all countries. This will be... 27th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Oil output cuts driving Gulf slowdown Economic growth across the region will be much weaker this year than last and our forecasts are generally below the consensus. We think regional growth will come in at just 1.4%, one of the weakest... 21st June 2023 · 20 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly SAIBOR surge, CBE meeting, Tunisia-EU loan Saudi Arabia’s interbank rates hit their highest level in over two decades this week and, if officials want to prop up credit growth, the Saudi Central Bank may need to step in once more to provide... 15th June 2023 · 6 mins read
