ECB Watch Treading carefully The ECB will probably confirm at the forthcoming press conference that December’s provision of 12- month bank loans will be the last. Together with possible hints about phasing out 6-month lending... 26th November 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Are markets simply riding a wave of central bank liquidity? We believe the surge in global asset prices owes much more to falling risk premiums associated with a fundamental improvement in the economic outlook than to a wave of liquidity created by central... 26th November 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) October’s euro-zone money supply figures provided few signs that the ECB’s unlimited provisions of liquidity are prompting any pick-up in broad money and bank lending. 26th November 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What is happening to Chinese commodity demand? Soaring inventories and falling imports are strong signs that the supply of many industrial metals in China far exceeds final demand. Needless to say, this reinforces our scepticism about the current... 26th November 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Further question marks over sustainability of current property rebound Yesterday’s BPF/IPD Annual Lease Review for 2009 showed that leases continue to get shorter and break clauses more common, implying a higher risk of voids for landlords. Although commercial property’s... 26th November 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What is happening to Chinese commodity demand? Soaring inventories and falling imports are strong signs that the supply of many industrial metals in China far exceeds final demand. Needless to say, this reinforces our scepticism about the current... 26th November 2009 · 1 min read
Capital Daily The good news on US corporate profits is unlikely to last 26th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Upswings starting to fade but inflows should stay strong (Nov 09) The emerging Asia upswing is losing some momentum but should stay generally strong in coming quarters. The dilemma over what to do about high capital inflows will not go away, especially as policy... 25th November 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Ukraine: At a crossroads We estimate that Ukraine needs a further $7.5bn in external financing assistance next year. But with the outcome of January’s Presidential elections still uncertain, the source of this funding is not... 25th November 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pre-Budget Report 2009 Preview - Going for broke? Consumers are likely to bear the brunt of the looming tax rises and government spending cuts. The worst year of the fiscal squeeze looks likely to be 2011, when we think that it could knock some 2.5%... 25th November 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Conditions in place for an Italian consumer recovery On the face of it, the latest news from the Italian household sector has been pretty disappointing and suggests that consumer spending may have fallen fairly sharply in Q3. Nonetheless, we think that... 25th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam makes the right moves The change came a little earlier than we had expected, but today’s devaluation and policy rate hike in Vietnam was no surprise. The currency will probably fall further over the next 12 months even... 25th November 2009 · 1 min read
