China Economics Update How strong would consumption be without subsidies? China’s household consumption growth would have been much lower this year without subsidies, trade-ins and other government policy support. Investors should not take the current strength of household... 4th December 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How long will Ireland’s hangover last? There have recently been some encouraging signs that Irelands painful adjustment may be coming to an end. Nonetheless, considerable obstacles remain. We expect the economy to continue to contract in... 3rd December 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB starting to phase out unconventional support The ECB confirmed today that it is phasing out its emergency lending to banks, and perhaps a bit more quickly than had been expected. But the Bank is still downbeat about the economic outlook and we... 3rd December 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Hopes of recovery in investment prove premature The slump in business spending in Q3 revealed in today’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) survey is partly old news, but the quarterly profile points to a substantial downward revision to the GDP data for... 3rd December 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia meanders to the exit Bank Indonesia (BI) left its policy rate at 6.5% today, as expected, and gave no indication that it is thinking about raising rates soon. We believe that the risks to inflation from keeping policy... 3rd December 2009 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC mulls alternatives to more QE With the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) likely to wait for February’s Inflation Report before reviewing its asset purchase programme, this week’s meeting should be a non-event. In any case, the... 3rd December 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Growing signs that the upturn is approaching its end (Dec 09) 3rd December 2009 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How much longer before the US equity market hits a wall? 3rd December 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Domestic spending still weak Q3’s GDP release confirmed that the euro-zone economy finally exited recession last quarter. But the expansion was largely down to a slower pace of destocking than in Q2. Unfortunately, despite the... 2nd December 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Lettings Survey (October 2009) 2nd December 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why the US equity market rally is likely to run out of steam The rally in the US equity market is nine months old and still going strong. This is not surprising. Equity prices typically start to rise six months or so before the economy emerges from recession... 2nd December 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How will consumers fare in the fiscal squeeze? Consumers are likely to bear the brunt of the looming tax rises and government spending cuts. The worst year of the fiscal squeeze looks likely to be 2011, when we think that it could knock some 2.5%... 2nd December 2009 · 1 min read
