China Economics Update Lessons from 2005 for the renminbi The renminbi came close to breaching the People’s Bank 0.5% trading band against the dollar today, however such strong gains are unlikely to be a sign of what is to come. Indeed, when currency reform... 21st June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary holds rates once again, but still no hikes in sight There are increasing signs that Hungarian policymakers have reached the end of the monetary easing cycle. But with the economy facing a tough time over the coming years, inflation pressures will be... 21st June 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina recovering but official data still too rosy 21st June 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Pace of renminbi appreciation set to disappoint The timing of China’s decision to allow greater flexibility in the renminbi has caught many others by surprise. But those now expecting a large appreciation against the dollar, and for this to boost... 21st June 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian currencies set to rise further The shift to de-peg the renminbi against the US dollar, announced on Saturday, will probably bring further FX rate appreciation across Asia, even though China is likely to move slowly from now on. The... 21st June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Government’s growth strategy fails to impress In our view the government’s mid to long-term growth strategy and fiscal plan is a triumph of spin over substance. Nonetheless, the markets appear willing to give the new administration the benefit of... 21st June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro’s decline to resume before long On the face of it, the fact that the euro last week saw its strongest weekly gain in nine months might suggest that the worst is past for the single currency. The improvement could partly have... 21st June 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly New Zealand set for a long hard slog New Zealand’s GDP looks to have expanded in Q1, albeit at a slower q/q pace than at the end of 2009. The recovery should not come under serious threat in coming quarters but is likely to be sluggish... 21st June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The Budget squeeze will hurt Last week’s interim forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) sprung something of a surprise in revealing a lower projected path for public borrowing over the next five years than that... 21st June 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi reform restarts Proof will come in the next day or two, but the decision of the People’s Bank to “proceed further” with exchange rate reform almost certainly means the renminbi’s hard dollar peg is at an end. 20th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How important are currency shifts to investment demand? The time series data on cross-border commercial property investment flows have a short history. But, not surprisingly in our view, they suggest that exchange rates are a far less important influence... 18th June 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Japan’s equity market should not underperform for long Japan’s equity market has been languishing this year. The Nikkei 225 is down about 5% since the beginning of 2010, while the S&P 500 is broadly unchanged. We don’t expect this underperformance to last... 18th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets still overstating pace of tightening (Jun 10) Marek Belka was recently sworn in as the new President of the National Bank of Poland, and his impressive credentials as a former head of the IMF’s European Department make him a safe pair of hands... 18th June 2010 · 1 min read
