China Activity Monitor On course for a soft landing The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that GDP growth slowed to a little over 10% y/y in the second quarter. A soft landing appears to be underway, although weakness in... 28th June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen strength not fatal, but clearly unwelcome We are not as worried as some about the impact of a stronger yen on the Japanese economy, but the past week saw two timely reminders of why it cannot be ignored completely. The recovery in export... 28th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fiscal worries eased, but not eliminated Last week’s tougher than expected Budget has helped to ease market concerns about the UK’s fiscal outlook, but it won’t eliminate them altogether. For a start, the vast bulk of the planned fiscal... 28th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone divergences widening Last week’s news on the euro-zone economy was fairly downbeat and suggested that divergences within the region have continued to widen. Germany, in particular, still seems to be benefitting from the... 28th June 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam’s upswing is accelerating again Vietnam data published over the next few days will almost certainly confirm that the economy has picked up speed and is now expanding close to the government’s target pace of 6.5% y/y. It is likely... 28th June 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update First thoughts a week into currency reform In the first week after the People’s Bank (PBC) decided to “proceed further” with exchange rate reform, the renminbi strengthened a total of 0.5% against the dollar. A little under half of those gains... 25th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Constitutional Court deals blow to Romania’s fiscal cutbacks This morning’s ruling by the Romanian Constitutional Court against planned cuts to state pensions deals a blow to the government’s austerity programme. While much remains uncertain, it seems unlikely... 25th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Property debt still a significant risk to UK financial system The Financial Stability Report (FSR) is not designed to lay out the Bank of England’s expectations for the financial system, economy or property markets. But there was enough in today’s report to... 25th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Property debt still a significant risk to UK financial system The Financial Stability Report (FSR) is not designed to lay out the Bank of England’s expectations for the financial system, economy or property markets. But there was enough in today’s report to... 25th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Banks still in no position to lend much more Given that the Bank of England has been criticised for not shouting loudly enough about the risks of a banking crisis, the gloomy tone of its latest Financial Stability Report (FSR) is perhaps... 25th June 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World trade recovery starting to lose momentum The latest CPB Trade Monitor shows that global trade fell back in April, albeit after a large gain in March. We expect the pace of recovery to slow more markedly later this year and in 2011 as the... 25th June 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia outlook strong despite the leadership upheaval International investors should not be concerned by the change of prime minister even though, by Australian standards, the events of this week have been unprecedented. Data on population trends, which... 25th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are the euro-zone austerity measures working? Recent data on the public finances suggest that the euro-zone peripheral governments are broadly on track to meet their ambitious fiscal targets for 2010. But these governments still face an enormous... 25th June 2010 · 1 min read
