BoE Watch Divisions emerge, but near-term hike unlikely The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is getting increasingly nervous about the current rise in inflation, as evidenced by Andrew Sentance’s vote for an interest rate rise last month. However, most... 1st July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Mixed economic growth prospects point to divergent property returns (Vol 2 2010) The euro-zone commercial property market outlook has been clouded by the sovereign debt crisis, but some markets are more exposed than others. Our latest forecasts envisage a growing divergence among... 1st July 2010 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Developed non-euro-zone markets offer the best risk/reward trade-off (Vol 2 2010) Since the previous Analyst, we have become a little more optimistic about the outlook for commercial property returns in 2010 and 2011. This mainly reflects the fact that, although the economic and... 1st July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2 2010) The latest Credit Conditions Survey suggested that the supply of credit for commercial property is likely to remain restricted, but for residential borrowers it is likely to contract again. In light... 1st July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2 2010) The latest Credit Conditions Survey suggested that the supply of credit for commercial property is likely to remain restricted, but for residential borrowers it is likely to contract again. In light... 1st July 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand to start monetary tightening in Q3 Bank of Thailand (BoT) monthly indicators for May suggest that the hit to the economy from the violence in Bangkok has not been too severe, which is what we expected would be the case. Exports and... 1st July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are the OBR’s house price forecasts too optimistic? The Office for Budget Responsibility’s house price forecasts seem to imply a structural shift in the sustainable house price to earnings ratio and a return to peak of the market mortgage servicing... 30th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jun.) After outstripping income growth for over a year now, house price gains more or less stalled in June. The impact of the fiscal squeeze on incomes and confidence is likely to drive house prices back... 30th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jun.) After outstripping income growth for over a year now, house price gains more or less stalled in June. The impact of the fiscal squeeze on incomes and confidence is likely to drive house prices back... 30th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland GDP (Q1) Ireland exited recession with a bang in Q1, suggesting that the impact of fiscal tightening there and in the rest of the periphery may be less than generally feared. But the improving outlook largely... 30th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish recovery leading the way Q1 2010 GDP data from Turkey reaffirm our view that it will be the best performing economy in the region over the next year or so. However, while the pace of recovery should continue to impress in the... 30th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment (Jun.) June’s euro-zone CPI data confirm that price pressures are very subdued. And while the continued fall in German unemployment brings hope of a modest consumer recovery there, it will not be strong... 30th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jun.) House prices rose in July, reversing some of the recent falls. But this does not alter our view that prices are set for a period of considerable weakness in the remainder of this year and into 2011. 30th June 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan targets closer ties with China A so-called Economic Co-operation Framework Agreement (ECFA) was approved yesterday between Taiwan and China. The deal should increase trade and for Taiwan there are two major implications. Firstly... 30th June 2010 · 1 min read
