China Economics Update Huge trade deficit, but questions too over domestic demand Exports to the US were a bright spot, but the general picture from China’s latest trade data is that global demand is still subdued. What’s more, imports have grown only slightly faster than exports... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2012 Preview The Chancellor’s resolve to stick to his austerity plans appears to be as strong as ever. We expect another fiscally neutral Budget, with flagship measures such as another rise in the personal tax... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Stop worrying about the new growth target The implications of China lowering its growth target have, in our view, been widely misunderstood. The lower target will have no direct impact on policy. Slower growth in China’s economy would also... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Vehicle sales driving consumption This year's surprising strength in new auto sales bodes well for first-quarter consumption, which could have risen by as much as 5% annualised. Even if sales faltered a little towards the end of the... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What to expect from India’s budget After a dismal year for fiscal policy, India’s Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee will try to reestablish his credentials for sound fiscal management when he presents the budget to parliament on Friday... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed still looking at ways to add to the policy mix The Wall Street Journal reported last week that the Fed was considering a new programme of bond buying, albeit with the twist that it could use large-scale reverse repo operations to offset the... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek deal does not eliminate break-up risks On the face of it, recent developments like the Greek debt restructuring deal and the ECB’s liquidity operations appear to have strongly undermined our view that a limited form of euro-zone break-up... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How the disaster changed Japan’s economy In this Weekly we look at how last year’s disaster has changed Japan’s economy in the long-term. In our view, the legacy stems mainly from the nuclear catastrophe which will have lasting effects on... 12th March 2012 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Savers’ plight won’t move the MPC Last week marked the third anniversary of official interest rates at just 0.5%. And while there are bound to be both winners and losers, it seems as if no-one is happy about it! 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update USDA report points to lower corn and soybean prices Consensus expectations of a significant tightening for corn and soybean were not supported by the latest supply and demand report from the United States Department for Agriculture (USDA). As a result... 9th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jan.) January's 2.3% m/m decline in exports, mostly due to lower energy and metal prices, trimmed Canada's trade surplus to C$2.1bn from C$2.9bn. More importantly, export volumes, after increasing strongly... 9th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) February's surprising 2,800 decline in employment, which continued a run of disappointingly weak jobs reports, is at odds with the better economic growth figures. Although we expect some improvement... 9th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) February's Employment Report adds to the evidence that the labour market has turned a corner. Non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000 in February, slightly above the consensus forecast of 210,000... 9th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q4 data show consumption coming off the boil Final GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe reinforced the view that Q4 was perhaps not as bad as we might have feared – growth accelerated in Poland and Slovakia and even the beleaguered... 9th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Copper prices to drop as China’s demand falls short Speculation this week has focused on the overall pace of China’s GDP growth, but the greater downside risk to the prices of industrial metals over the medium term is the prospect of a decline in the... 9th March 2012 · 1 min read
