Japan Economics Update Current account deficit a one-off Japan’s current account swung into deficit in January, but this was mainly the result of seasonal factors and the deficit is likely to be reversed in February. Nonetheless this acts as a reminder of... 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Cuts to fuel subsidies mean no more rate cuts in Indonesia Having cut interest rates by a cumulative 100bp over the past six months, Bank Indonesia (BI) left rates on hold today, as expected. With upcoming cuts to fuel price subsidies likely to push inflation... 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian rates heading back to 2009 low The decision by the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts reflects mounting concerns among policymakers about the sustainability of Brazil’s “twin-speed” growth... 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rates: debate to turn to cuts this year Today the National Bank of Poland (NBP) pushed up its 2012 inflation forecast which, on the face of it, is likely to provide further support to the argument that any move in interest rates this year... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Risks to the Hungarian markets still skewed to downside The notion that the Hungarian government can prevent a future sell-off in the forint simply by reviving talk of an IMF deal in times of market stress seems hopelessly misplaced. Our view remains that... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic Prices & Mortgage Apps. (Jan./Feb.) We’ve been expecting house prices to stop falling soon and January’s CoreLogic index provided the first tentative sign that this is happening. But the continued weakness of mortgage applications... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economic growth likely to slow further in 2012 Canada's economy grew by 2.5% in 2011, down from the 3.2% rebound in the year before. Both households and businesses contributed 1.5 percentage points to overall growth last year. While the government... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Election Watch: Presidential race starting to heat up The latest opinion polls suggest that the Mexican presidential election may be closer than expected. Further gains for the left-wing Andrés Manuel López Obrador may spark some turbulence, but in... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack End of the Stamp Duty holiday will test the market’s strength The rise in demand in recent months appears to have had little impact on house prices. And transactions are likely to drop once the stamp duty holiday ends later this month. With consumer confidence... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Sustained fall in inflation underway Inflation will climb further in most major economies over the coming months, reflecting both higher energy prices and higher food prices. The peaks should still be lower than those in 2008 as long as... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Feb.) We think consumer price inflation dropped significantly in February. We expect further small falls to the middle of the year, which will provide room for more policy easing. Oil prices at their... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update 0.5% rates - 3 years down, another 3 to go? Tomorrow’s MPC meeting marks the third anniversary of interest rates reaching a record low of just 0.5% in March 2009. We think that they could stay at this level for another three years. 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Lettings Survey (Jan.) Today’s RICS survey shows a significant drop in the pace of residential rental growth and thus seems to support our view that affordability constraints in the sector are beginning to bite. 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia is well-placed to continue to outperform Today’s GDP data show that Australia’s economy grew by less than expected in Q4. Nonetheless, Australia outpaced the US, euro-zone and UK over 2011 as a whole. While we expect the global economy to... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Consumer outlook darkens The prospect of stronger growth in the euro-zone economy has been dented by a slew of bad news on the consumer sector. Not only did household spending contract by 0.4% in the last quarter of 2011 -... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
