January's 2.3% m/m decline in exports, mostly due to lower energy and metal prices, trimmed Canada's trade surplus to C$2.1bn from C$2.9bn. More importantly, export volumes, after increasing strongly in December, only dipped slightly. Overall, the data indicates that net exports will contribute positively to first-quarter GDP growth, suggesting upside risk to our forecast of 1.5% annualised.
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