US Economics Update Labour market conditions still strong The latest NFIB small business and JOLTS surveys indicate that the disappointing gain in payroll employment in August was just a blip rather than the start of a major slowdown. What’s more, the... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Using another country’s currency is a costly option Unilateral adoption of the euro, which is the currency regime of Montenegro and a number of other countries, might seem to be a potential blueprint for other European countries outside the euro-zone... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Yen weakness not the only driver of Nikkei strength The renewed slide in the yen (to 106) against the dollar has helped to revive investors’ interest in the Nikkei, which closed today at its highest level since January. We remain comfortable with our... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Further evidence that weak US payrolls data were just a blip 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports pick up, but commodity producers lag behind EM export growth picked up in July, continuing the trend seen over the previous four months, and more timely data suggest that it strengthened further last month. However, there is a growing... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Coal prices to fall further as environmental regulations bite The recent sharp falls in imports of coal by China and consumption of coal in the US are just the latest evidence that environmental measures enacted over the last year have begun to reduce demand in... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics (Q2) The mortgage market continues on its long road to recovery, with an increase in the total value of loans advanced and evidence that higher loan-to-value lending is finally seeing something of a... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s current account woes return in Q2 South Africa’s balance of payments data for Q2 make for grim reading. The current account deficit widened to its largest as a share of GDP since Q3 2013 and, while exports are likely to pick up later... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What are inflation expectations telling us? Measures of inflation expectations are unanimous in pointing to a growing risk of deflation in the eurozone.Meanwhile, the rise in inflation expectations in Japan suggests that the BoJ’s actions have... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Sep.) After another month of stable inflation in August, we expect rising pork prices and utility price reforms to push inflation higher over the coming quarters. But easing pressure on housing costs, weak... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (Jul.) July’s industrial production and trade figures provided tentative indications that the UK’s strong and stable economic recovery has continued into the third quarter of the year. 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Venezuela on the brink of a balance of payments crisis Rampant inflation, a weakening currency and falling foreign exchange reserves mean that Venezuela has all of the ingredients for a balance of payments crisis. We expect GDP to contract by a cumulative... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Aug.) August’s strong BRC Retail Sales Monitor provided an encouraging sign that the recovery in consumer spending has maintained plenty of momentum. Moreover, the prospects for consumer spending towards... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The first decline in consumer confidence since April adds to the uninspiring survey evidence released for August. 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Looser credit standards may help Italian firms More favourable terms and conditions for loans to Italian firms point to a possible pick-up ininvestment and industrial production in the coming quarters. However, there is little evidence we willsee... 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian auto sector an unlikely growth source While the recent surge in new motor vehicle sales is an encouraging sign of household confidence perhaps, we think it is more likely a weather-related bounce back from the slowdown earlier this year... 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
