UK Markets Chart Pack Low inflation outlook pushes rates down UK markets have pushed back their expectations for the timing of the first interest rate hike to the second quarter of 2015, even though the latest surveys suggest that the recovery has remained... 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Would Scottish independence drive sterling down even further? 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Confidence to continue climbing We’re not convinced that equity prices will continue to boost consumer confidence, but an acceleration in wage growth should allow confidence to rise further above its long run average. 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Risks from spate of USD bond issuances look manageable We think that the risks from the recent glut of foreign currency bond issuances by African governments are, for the most part, manageable. Granted, both Ghana and Zambia have turned to the IMF... 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Treading water Economic growth in Latin America slowed further in the first half of 2014 and we see little chance of a strong rebound over the coming quarters. The key props to strong growth in the past decade are... 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s trade data confirm weaker commodity demand China’s commodity import demand weakened in August as the slowdown in the property sector continued to weigh on industrial metals consumption. While crude oil imports increased, this was matched by... 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi slowdown continues at the start of Q3 Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi economy slowed further at the start of Q3 as growth in the oil sector continued to ease, while activity in the non-oil sector remained weak by past standards. 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Aug.) Halifax reported that house prices were essentially flat in August, with a gain of only 0.1% during the month. Given the volatility of monthly data recently, it is hard to draw any firm conclusions... 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Aug.) Stronger-than-expected export growth for August points to healthy foreign demand. In contrast, weaker-than-expected import growth suggests that cooling investment, particularly in the property sector... 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Aug.) The fall in the current conditions component of today's Economy Watchers Survey suggests that the recovery is already levelling off before it has really started. 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q2 Revised) & Current Account (July) The second estimate of Q2 GDP was little changed from the first and still shows a sharp decline in output last quarter. Meanwhile, the current account surplus may widen further in coming months as... 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) Canada's discouraging employment performance over the past six months is further evidence that the economy is struggling and that the Bank of Canada's needs to keep interest rates low to have any hope... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Spring of hope or winter of despair? Last week was the best of times and the worst of times. Just as it looked as though the US recoverywas finally moving into a higher gear, as credit conditions eased and the fiscal drag faded, the142... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB still tiptoeing around QE While last week’s cuts in interest rates and details of asset purchase programmes were a welcomesurprise, we still believe that the ECB will eventually have to stop tiptoeing around and take theplunge... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How vulnerable are European gas supplies to the Ukraine crisis? Today’s announcement that both sides have agreed on a ceasefire should help to ease tensions inUkraine and move the government and rebels towards a sustainable peace deal. Admittedly, we havealready... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly GDP overhaul merely tweaks the big picture Last week’s revised GDP estimates were seemingly all things to all men, supporting political parties’ views and every economist’s forecasts for interest rates and fiscal policy. In reality, the new... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
