Africa Economics Weekly Uninspiring politics in Nigeria, SA’s external position Nigeria’s two main political parties have selected presidential contenders, setting the scene for a long campaign season ahead of elections in early 2023. Lots can happen until then, but with more... 10th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q1) South Africa posted stronger-than-expected GDP growth of 1.9% q/q in Q1 and, while the economy is unlikely to sustain such a robust performance over the coming quarters, we have revised up our GDP... 7th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Fuel levy in South Africa, primary season in Nigeria The extension of a fuel levy cut in South Africa will help to contain fuel price pressures in the near-term, but the extra fiscal costs come at the same time that it looks like the government will... 1st June 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May) The rebound in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI last month reversed some of its losses in April, but the recovery in the manufacturing sector is on shaky footings given ongoing power cuts. And price... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We think EM sovereign bond yields will resume their rise While the yields of emerging market local-currency and dollar-denominated sovereign bonds have dropped back in recent weeks, we expect them to resume their rise before long. US Payrolls Drop-In (3 rd... 31st May 2022 · 8 mins read
Africa Chart Pack The monetary policy tide turns African central banks have turned up their hawkish noises over the past month. Policymakers in Nigeria and Kenya delivered their first interest rate hikes following pandemic-era cuts. In South Africa... 31st May 2022 · 12 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s economy and central bank chief under pressure The rumours (subsequently denied) that Nigeria’s central bank governor had been sacked after delivering an interest rate hike raise further questions over the CBN’s independence. Even if the governor... 27th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update War in Ukraine inflames food insecurity in Africa The outsize role of agriculture in Sub-Saharan African economies and the tendency to rely on imported food products makes the region particularly vulnerable to the agricultural shock caused by the war... 25th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Markets and monetary policy, mounting pressure on naira Recent investor risk-off sentiment has pushed up sovereign dollar bond yields across Sub-Saharan Africa, fuelling debt risks further, and has put currencies under pressure. Central banks appear to be... 20th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Hawks’ majority in SARB to be short-lived Policymakers in South Africa upped the pace of tightening today, raising the repo rate by 50bp to 4.75%, as concerns about inflation (and inflation expectations in particular) have grown. We don’t... 19th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Mar.) South Africa’s activity data for March were weak and that was even before flooding in KwaZulu-Natal province dealt a fresh blow to the economy. Inflation figures released earlier today may have... 18th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Apr.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate remained close to the upper bound of the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range in April, at 5.9% y/y, and will stay there over the coming months. Tomorrow’s interest... 18th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update A primer on South Africa’s monetary policy reform The South African Reserve Bank is set to shake up its monetary policy setup. This Update provides some clarity on what policymakers will do and why, and what it means for monetary and credit... 11th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA recovery falters, wage talks, Kenya’s soft start to 2022 Recent flooding in a key province and warnings this week that power cuts could reach unprecedented levels are the latest in a long list of blows to South Africa’s economy that have repeatedly stifled... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Debt problems building Sub-Saharan Africa’s recovery is likely to remain slow going and our growth forecasts are generally below the consensus. While spillovers from the war in Ukraine will boost a handful of economies –... 4th May 2022 · 22 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The plunge in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in April suggests that there was a large blow to activity from flooding in a key province and renewed power cuts. One consequence of this economic... 3rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
