Africa Economics Weekly SA recovery falters, wage talks, Kenya’s soft start to 2022 Recent flooding in a key province and warnings this week that power cuts could reach unprecedented levels are the latest in a long list of blows to South Africa’s economy that have repeatedly stifled... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Debt problems building Sub-Saharan Africa’s recovery is likely to remain slow going and our growth forecasts are generally below the consensus. While spillovers from the war in Ukraine will boost a handful of economies –... 4th May 2022 · 22 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The plunge in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in April suggests that there was a large blow to activity from flooding in a key province and renewed power cuts. One consequence of this economic... 3rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Fiscal positions largely going from worse to bad Fiscal positions across Sub-Saharan Africa have been a persistent source of concern since the onset of the pandemic – and in some cases, even before. And the commodity price moves resulting from the... 28th April 2022 · 10 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar.) The rise in inflation in South Africa in March, to 5.9% y/y, will keep the Reserve Bank’s tightening cycle going at the next meeting in May. But the weakness of core inflation supports our view that... 20th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Floods hit SA recovery, Nigeria’s presidential race This week’s floods in South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal province are the latest in a series of hits to the economic recovery. Elsewhere, the news this week from Nigeria that Vice President Yemi Osinbajo... 14th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Feb.) South Africa’s hard activity data for February were a stark contrast to the recent upbeat surveys as output dropped back in the mining, manufacturing and retail sectors. Electricity problems, fiscal... 14th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB will continue to tighten slowly South Africa’s headline inflation rate will stay close to the upper bound of the central bank’s 3-6% target range in the coming months before falling sharply in the second half of the year. Some MPC... 13th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Virus restrictions eased, Kenya’s fleeting budget Governments across Sub-Saharan Africa have scaled back COVID-19 restrictions in recent weeks and, despite low vaccination coverage, it seems the virus will be less disruptive to activity going forward... 8th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA wage talks, central banks turn hawkish, Tanzania-IMF Public sector wage negotiations will soon kick off in South Africa and there are reasons to think that officials may concede further ground to trade unions. Meanwhile, after central banks in South... 1st April 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The further rise in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in March to a record high provides further evidence that the economy has rebounded strongly from the Omicron-driven dip in activity at the end of... 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack War in Ukraine: a varied impact across Africa Spillovers from the war in Ukraine will have a varied impact across Sub-Saharan Africa. Large oil producers such as Nigeria and Angola are benefitting from the surge in global oil prices but, for the... 31st March 2022 · 13 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB continues to tighten, hawks gaining ground The upside inflation risks created by the war in Ukraine and the solid performance of South Africa’s economy prompted the Reserve Bank to push ahead with its tightening cycle today, raising the repo... 24th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Feb.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate was unchanged at 5.7% y/y in February but, with the war in Ukraine increasing upside inflation risks and signs that the economic recovery has been robust... 23rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Assessing public debt risks in Africa In this Update, we roll out our sovereign debt heat map that provides a snapshot of debt risks across Sub-Saharan Africa. The pandemic has increased debt burdens across the continent and, with... 21st March 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Cost of FX policies rising in Nigeria, fuel price cap in SA? Evidence is building that Nigeria’s unorthodox exchange rate policies are fuelling inflation and increasingly damaging economic activity. Meanwhile, the authorities in South Africa are reportedly... 18th March 2022 · 8 mins read
