US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep. 2024) The ISM manufacturing index was unchanged in September, although the jump in the production index and rebound in new orders paint a slightly less negative picture heading into the fourth quarter. 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Miami apartment market to feel the heat over 2025-28 Apartment markets are turning a corner, and we now expect the sector to outperform over the five year forecast. As new supply drops back from the second half of next year, we expect a mixture of... 1st October 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) The economy is stuck in a period of below-potential GDP growth, with previous interest rate hikes weighing on consumer spending and investment. This will keep downward pressure on core inflation... 30th September 2024 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Revisions clear up some nagging doubts Leading up to this week’s annual revisions to the national accounts, we were attuned of the risk that the expenditure-based real GDP measure might be revised lower to match up with the income-based... 27th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Fewer cuts may push US & EZ yields up & the EUR sideways We don’t see compelling reasons for policymakers in the US or the euro-zone to lower policy rates as much as market pricing suggests, so we expect long-dated bond yields there to edge up before long... 27th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly More reasons for the Bank to favour a 50bp cut The upside surprise to GDP growth in July does not change the big picture that quarterly growth is likely to be much weaker than the Bank of Canada anticipated, while a host of other data releases... 27th September 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (Aug) As we calculated based on the earlier price data releases, the core PCE deflator increased by a muted 0.13% m/m in August, with the headline deflator up by 0.09% m/m. Admittedly, although the monthly... 27th September 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Jul.) Although the rise in GDP in July was stronger than expected, the preliminary estimate of unchanged GDP in August suggests that the momentum was short lived and puts third-quarter growth on track to... 27th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook A soft patch The global economy has hit a soft patch with the euro-zone virtually stagnant, the US labour market flagging and China rationing its policy stimulus. We expect this weakness to persist around the turn... 26th September 2024 (Updated 1st October 2024) · 44 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth to ease further We think labour market conditions continued to ease in September, with a 100,000 rise in non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate edging up to 4.3%. 26th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Notes from LSE Environment Week Ahead of COP29 in November, discussions have been taking place at events in London and New York this week on all things climate. We attended the LSE’s Environment Week to hear the thoughts of... 26th September 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response GDP (Q2 3rd Est. & Annual Revision) & Durable Goods (Aug) At first glance the annual revision to the national accounts doesn’t appear to have had much of an impact – with second-quarter GDP growth left unchanged at 3.0% and core PCE inflation unchanged at 2... 26th September 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Innovation clusters to drive flex R&D performance The flex industrial subsector outperformed most other property types over the last cycle. Its underlying characteristics mean demand and returns will continue to be healthy ahead, though the winning... 25th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Asset allocation as the Fed cuts and the US votes We expect equities to fare best among the major asset classes we track through the end of 2025, as the AI bubble reinflates. We suspect government and corporate bonds will generally do less well... 25th September 2024 · 28 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response New Home Sales (Aug. 2024) New home sales dropped back slightly in August, which always seemed likely after the 10% surge in transactions the month before, driven by pent-up buyers responding to lower borrowing costs. Still... 25th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Weak growth to prompt more aggressive loosening With the inflation battle all but won, weak GDP growth will force the Bank of Canada into more aggressive action, with a couple of 50bp interest rate cuts to end this year. We expect the Bank to adopt... 25th September 2024 · 14 mins read
