US Housing Market Rapid Response New Home Sales (May) New home sales increased for the third consecutive month in May, rising by a punchy 12.2% m/m to reach 763,000 annualised, the highest level since February 2022. This leaves them firmly above pre... 27th June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Apr.) House prices rose in April by the fastest pace in close to a year, reflecting constraints to supply as high mortgage rates have discouraged existing homeowners from moving. Although prices have shown... 27th June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Durable Goods (May) The 1.7% m/m rise in durable goods orders in May was stronger than we had expected, even accounting for a big rise in the volatile commercial aircraft component. But the wider evidence still suggests... 27th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (May) While the steep declines in both headline and core inflation in May were partly due to favourable base effects, the monthly gains in each also slowed compared to April. That probably won’t be enough... 27th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Outlook We expect near-term pain for equities, but medium-term gain We continue to expect risky assets to struggle over the second half of this year, as major developed market (DM) economies slip into recessions. Meanwhile, we think DM sovereign bonds will rally; that... 26th June 2023 · 15 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly July rate hike still looking likely The latest Summary of Deliberations gave no hint about whether the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates again at the July meeting but, with little progress yet on any of the key factors that the... 23rd June 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Growth still weakening despite housing rebound The jump in housing starts in May appeared to confirm that the sector is enjoying a revival of fortune as mortgage rates have eased slightly. Nevertheless, the experience of the mild recession of 2001... 23rd June 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Jun.) Easing financial conditions, improving consumer sentiment and the stabilisation in housing suggest that the risks of an imminent recession have eased slightly. Nonetheless, our tracking models still... 22nd June 2023 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Office values unlikely to regain their peaks even by 2040 The reduction in office demand due to remote work will cause a hit to net operating incomes on a par with, or worse than, that experienced by malls over the last six years. And in line with the... 22nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Existing Home Sales (May.) As expected, existing home sales remained relatively unchanged in May, rising by +0.2% m/m to 4,300,000 annualised. Despite this marginal rise, a decline in mortgage applications for home purchase in... 22nd June 2023 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update High Treasury volatility won’t prevent yields from falling Treasury volatility has fallen over recent weeks but remains high by historical standards, and we wouldn’t be surprised if it remained so over the rest of 2023 even after the Fed has concluded its... 21st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Retail Sales (Apr.) The stronger-than-expected rise in retail sales in April suggests that household spending was resilient going into the second quarter. Both the preliminary estimate for May and the recent rebound in... 21st June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update US Housing Monthly Dashboard Our new Dashboard allows clients to track the key housing market indicators that we follow in real time. This Update outlines what has driven recent developments in these indicators, and our view for... 21st June 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Little sign of AI euphoria in corporate credit While the AI revolution has prompted us to revise up our forecasts for US equities today, we don’t think it changes the outlook for US corporate credit spreads much. We think spreads still look too... 20th June 2023 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (May.) Single-family starts saw the largest monthly increase in nearly three years in May, suggesting homebuilders have been responding to the recent rises in new home sales. We still expect a mild recession... 20th June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Hi-tech construction boom not reflected in output The investment boom in new hi-tech manufacturing plants is unprecedented, but that boom still hasn’t fed through into higher output or employment in hi-tech manufacturing and investment in IT... 20th June 2023 · 10 mins read
